WASHINGTON, D.C. — Market analysts admittedly had a number of numbers to sift through last week after the USDA released several grain stocks and crop-related reports. Its National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) shared data Jan. 12 on 2015 crop production, supply and demand and quarterly and ending grain stocks.

“This is the big day,” said Darin Newsom, DTN senior analyst. “As always, with this January round of reports, the best way to think of it is the Super Bowl, Daytona 500 and the Kentucky Derby all rolled into one. This is a big day in grain, and today did not disappoint.”

The 2015 crop production statistics may be called the final numbers, but chances are, they aren’t, Newsom noted.

“I always have to put the ‘final’ in quotes because these aren’t really final crop production numbers,” he explained. “There’s never anything final about any of these numbers. They’re written in pencil. That way, they can be erased and they can be changed.”

Corn production in 2015 totaled 13.6 billion bushels, down from 14.2 billion in 2014, according to the USDA’s 2015 Crop Production Summary. Average yield was 168.4 bushels per acre, down from 171 in 2014. Harvested acreage dropped from 83.1 million acres in 2014 to 80.7 million last year.

For soybeans, production last year was a record high 3.929 billion bushels, up slightly from 3.927 billion in 2014. Average yield – at 48 bushels per acre – was also a record high, and up from 2014’s 47.5. Producers harvested 81.8 million acres, down from a record high 82.6 million in 2014.

Farmers produced 1.37 billion bushels of winter wheat last year, down from 1.38 billion in 2014. Last year’s yield of 42.5 bushels per acre was down slightly from 42.6 in 2014. Farmers harvested 32.26 million acres, down from nearly 32.3 million in 2014.

Ending stocks

In its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, USDA set ending stocks for soybeans at 440 million bushels, down from 465 million in December 2015. The average trade pre-report estimate was 471 million. USDA expects crush numbers to remain steady and exports to be down.

“Since the beginning of this year and even going back to last year, it’s all been about China’s collapsing economy,” Newsom noted. “There’s this global concern over China’s economy and is it going to continue to contract.

“But things may not be as bearish as what they seem, because there are commodities China is going to want to continue to buy. You cannot have your populace go hungry. China’s economy may not be strong, but they’re still going to import soybeans.”

The soybean ending stocks numbers were welcome news, said Brian Hoops, of Midwest Market Solutions. “That’s certainly a sigh of relief for this soybean market,” he noted. There was a lot of fear that we would see ending stocks over 500 million bushels, if we saw enough production increase, because there was expected to be a slowdown in demand and a slowdown in crush.”

Corn ending stocks were 1.8 billion bushels, up from 1.79 billion in December 2015, and above the average trade pre-report estimate of 1.77 billion. Use for feed and residual and ethanol is expected to remain unchanged. Declines are anticipated in exports and food, seed and industrial use.

All wheat ending stocks were 941 million bushels, up from December’s 911 million. Declines are expected in seed and feed and residual use, while exports and food usage should remain steady.

In its Grain Stocks report, NASS said corn stocks totaled 11.2 billion bushels as of Dec. 1, 2015, up slightly from the previous December. A disappearance of 4.12 billion bushels was noted from September-November, down from 4.24 billion during the same time in 2014.

For soybeans, stocks were 2.71 billion bushels, up from 2.5 billion in December 2014. The amount of disappearance was 1.41 billion bushels from September-November, down 6 percent from the same period in 2014.

All wheat stocks were 1.74 billion bushels, up 14 percent from December 2014. A disappearance of 359 million bushels was reported from September-November, down 5 percent from the same period in 2014.

“It’s not lost on traders that we have huge amounts of stocks, especially soybeans and wheat, compared to our historical numbers,” Hoops said. “That’s going to limit the upside for these markets until we get into a weather scare or some scenario.”

Crop numbers by state

•In 2015, Illinois produced 2 billion bushels of corn, down from 2.4 billion in 2014. The state had an average yield of 175 bushels per acre, down from 200. Indiana grew 822 million bushels last year, down from 1.1 billion; average yield was 150 bushels, down from 188. Other states were as follows:

Iowa, 2.5 billion bushels, up from 2.4 billion, yield 192, up from 178; Kentucky, 225 million bushels, down from 226 million, yield 172, up from 158; Michigan, 335 million bushels, down from 356 million, yield 162, up from 161; Ohio, 499 million bushels, down from 611 million, yield 153, down from 176; and Tennessee, 117 million bushels, down from 141 million, yield 160, down from 168.

•For soybeans, Illinois farmers produced 544 million bushels in 2015, down from 547 million in 2014. Average yield was 56 bushels per acre last year, unchanged from 2014. Other states were as follows:

Indiana, 275 million bushels, down from 302 million, yield 50, down from 55.5; Iowa, 554 million, up from 498 million, yield 56.5, up from 51; Kentucky, 89 million, up from 83 million, yield 49, up from 47.5; Michigan, 99 million, up from 86.7 million, yield 49, up from 42.5; Ohio, 237 million, down from 246 million, yield 50, down from 52.5; and Tennessee, 79 million, up from 74 million, yield 46, unchanged.