By MICHELE F. MIHALJEVICH

Indiana Correspondent

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The United States continues to export corn at a record pace, according to numbers released last week by the USDA.

April exports were a record high, beating the previous monthly shipment record from November 1989, the agency said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released June 12. “Export inspection data for the month of May implies continued robust global demand for U.S. corn, while old-crop outstanding sales at this point in the marketing year are record high,” it stated.

Old-crop exports were expected to be 2.3 billion bushels, up from the previous year’s 2.29 billion. Todd Hultman, a market analyst with DTN, questioned if corn exports would be able to reach USDA’s estimate for the marketing year. Year-to-date, U.S. exports have totaled 1.5 billion bushels, which puts sales on pace for about 2.1 billion for the year.

“That tells us that USDA’s higher export estimate is actually somewhat of an aggressive reach,” he noted. “We have seen corn shipments increase later in the season. It is still possible for USDA’s estimate to come through.”

Poor corn crops in Argentina and Brazil will help boost U.S. exports, said Shawn Hackett, president and CEO of Hackett Financial Advisors.

“Both countries came up very short, and that will have to be made up,” he explained. “We’ll continue to get a lot of business by default. No one else has the supply and ability to deliver like we do. Japan, Mexico and South Korea will continue to be large buyers of U.S. corn. There could be some front-loading from Mexico before tariffs might start.”

For the 2018-19 marketing year, USDA estimated corn exports of 2.1 billion bushels, unchanged from the May report.

“The export number feels a bit low,” noted Matt Connelly, an analyst with The Hightower Report. “Ukraine and Russia are having troubles. Exports will go up, which will take ending stocks down even further.”

Old-crop ending stocks are estimated to be 2.1 billion bushels, a drop of nearly 80 million from earlier estimates. Ending stocks for the 2018-19 marketing year are projected to be 1.58 billion, down from 1.68 billion in May.

USDA increased the amount of new-crop corn used for ethanol production by 50 million bushels, to nearly 5.7 billion. “There is talk of increasing the mandate for how much ethanol will be allowed in gasoline,” Hackett said. “Clearly, that would be a significant driver.”

He raised the possibility of $5-$6 corn by next summer if growers have good weather and production. Farmers could see those prices sooner if the crop comes up short, he added.

The USDA anticipates U.S. old-crop prices of $3.25-$3.55 and for new-crop, $3.40-$4.40.

Soybeans

Ending stocks for old-crop soybeans were 505 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. New-crop ending stocks are projected at 385 million, down from 415 million in May.

The USDA raised its old-crop crush number by 25 million bushels, to just more than 2 billion. The new-crop crush number is 2 billion, up slightly from May.

“Crush incentives for soybeans remain strong, and have really been the only bright light for soybean demand this year while exports have struggled,” Hultman said.

Old-crop exports were estimated to be 2.07 billion bushels; for the previous year, they were 2.17 billion. New-crop exports are projected to be 2.3 billion, unchanged from May.

If U.S. soybean exports to China are disrupted by tariffs, there are other countries that may pick up some of the slack, Connelly said.

“Right now, China is buying Brazilian beans anyway,” he pointed out. “We could see increases in exports to Egypt and some European countries. Some non-regular U.S. customers could step up and buy our beans. Other countries will step up, but that won’t offset our overall loss.”

Brazil is expecting an all-time high record soybean crop, Hackett said. “The Chinese have to buy soybeans no matter what. Brazil will sell and then say they sold too many. Our beans may go to Brazil, but will end up going to China anyway.”

USDA expects old-crop prices to average $9.40. The agency is projecting $8.75-$11.25 for new-crop soybeans.