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Views and opinions: Chinese tech exec arrest excites markets on trade
 

The much-anticipated meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi did not fail to produce excitement upon its conclusion.

Newswires lit up late Dec. 1 and into that Sunday with emerging details, the most important of which was the initial agreement to give a 90-day negotiation period, during which no additional tariffs would take place. This includes a freeze on the expected increase in tariffs on $200 billion worth of goods from 10 percent currently in place to 25 percent, slated for Jan. 1, 2019.

Last week’s Monday morning brought a lot of discussion and statements from both parties responsible for negotiating, showing two different tones. This of course led to some confusion over what was actually accomplished, tempering some of the anticipated buying strength but still allowing for solid moves in all markets across the scale.

The official statement from the United States after the meeting indicated that the two countries had agreed to proceed with negotiations aimed to make “structural changes” when it comes to forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyber intrusions and cyber theft in services and agriculture, all over 90 days.

When looking at statements made from both countries, the U.S. said Beijing had promised to buy a substantial amount of U.S. ag, energy, industrial and other products, while Beijing was quick to say they were willing to “import more goods from the U.S. based on the needs of the Chinese people.” U.S. officials said the purchases would be made immediately, while the Chinese said the increase would be gradual.

Of course, the difference in statements can easily be chalked up to cultural differences when it comes to negotiation and conversation; however, the lack of visible action was concerning to some market watchers.

As the week progressed the markets stalled out, seemingly comfortable with pricing levels for the most part until Thursday morning, when a major bombshell shook the confidence of even the most bullish investor. An arrest of a top executive for China’s largest tech company was seen as a troubling occurrence in the midst of negotiation.

Meng Wanzhou is the CFO and deputy chair of the board for Huawei, China’s leading technological company. She also happens to be the daughter of the company’s founder and well respected in China. The arrest took place in Vancouver, British Columbia, as she was switching planes, and is said to be at the request of the United States, who was asking she be extradited immediately.

While the Chinese and officials with Huawei said she had done nothing wrong and her arrest was a great error made by the U.S. and Canada, U.S. officials claimed she has been working to avoid sanctions by illegally selling American made products to Iran.

Early news reports seem to indicate the arrest had just taken place and was roiling the markets, but as details began to emerge, we discovered the arrest was not in fact as recent as first indicated and had actually happened on Dec. 1, the day of the Trump/Xi meeting.

The fact that it took place days earlier and prior to the meeting removed some of the sense of urgency felt when first announced, though still concerning, as it could have a big impact on the relationship between the two countries as a whole.

It is interesting to note that the company in question has been banned in the U.S. and Australia, with a consumer warning issued in the United Kingdom as many believe it is responsible for, or at the very least capable of, spying, facilitating identity theft and compromising private information.

As the week drew to a close we saw export sales volumes come in above pre-report expectations for corn and wheat, with soy on the high side of recent ranges. We have also seen a handful of U.S. flash sales for both corn and beans, with corn going to Mexico for the most part and soy going to “unknown.” China was in as a buyer of U.S. pork for the second week in a row as well.

This week the focus will remain on what is taking place from a negotiation standpoint and if we start to see actual purchases being made. We also had a USDA supply and demand update scheduled for Tuesday. Considering there was a significant amount of crop in the field as of Dec. 1, an adjustment to harvested acres or yield was not out of the question.

At the same time, it will be interesting to see if the USDA makes any adjustments to Chinese demand in light of recent news, as a Shanghai-based market intelligence firm indicated China soy imports could come in 10 million metric tons higher than current USDA projections.

 

Angie Setzer is the Vice President of Grain for Citizens Elevator in Charlotte, Mich. Her market commentary can be found on Twitter by @GoddessofGrain and online at www.citizenselevator.com

The opinions and views in this commentary are solely those of Angie Setzer. Data used for this commentary obtained from various sources are believed to be accurate.

12/13/2018