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Trade, midterms review head up Indiana Ag Policy meeting

 

By ANN HINCH

LEBANON, Ind. — “Eventful” doesn’t seem adequate to cover the state of news affecting U.S. agriculture in 2018, so the Indiana Corn/Soy groups did their best to try to decompress and review the year’s highlights with farmer members at their Ag Policy Forum in Lebanon Nov. 27.

The forum took place a few days before the international G-20 summit in Argentina, during which President Trump and Chinese President Xi met in a side-discussion about tariffs between the United States and China. At the forum’s morning session, American Soybean Assoc. (ASA) CEO Ryan Findlay said it is important to be honest on “not seeing a light at the end of the tunnel” on losses of soybean sales to China.

“We are not anticipating a change after this week’s meeting,” he said at the time.

Since the G-20, it has been reported by many outlets that the U.S. and China will take a 90-day tariffs “cease-fire” to try to reach a trade agreement. Further, China said last week it will start by focusing on farm goods, energy and autos; it was not immediately clear if this means more Chinese purchases of U.S. goods.

Findlay said tariffs this year have meant a 20 percent loss of income for U.S. farmers, which the ASA and others have tried to convey to the White House and legislators. Since July 6, he said only two shipments of U.S. soybeans had gone to China, when earier this year they were the No. 2 export to the Asian nation behind Boeing aircraft.

“Until the tariffs are gone, nothing’s going to change,” he said, adding the ASA’s focus now is on both eliminating China’s tariffs on beans and increasing existing and new markets for the commodity elsewhere in the world – including Vietnam, Indonesia and Europe.

Still, the ASA doesn’t dispute what the administration said precipitated imposing steel and aluminum tariffs on China: Section 301 violations of U.S. intellectual property (IP) usage. Early this year, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative released a report detailing IP concerns worldwide, including placing China on its “Priority Watch List” for the 14th year for “coercive technology transfer practices … including trade secret theft, rampant online piracy and counterfeit manufacturing.”

“I don’t think that we as an organization would disagree with much that’s in the 301 report,” Findlay added.

A further possible complication in trade talks arose last week from the arrest of Huawei Technologies Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou in Canada for possible extradition to the United States, on charges here of violating sanctions on Iran.

The Associated Press reported that Huawei, the biggest global supplier of network gear used by phone and internet companies, has been the target of deepening U.S. security concerns. Under both Trump and former President Obama, the U.S. has pressured European countries and other allies to limit use of its technology, as it sees Huawei and smaller Chinese tech suppliers as possible fronts for spying and as commercial competitors.

Political chess

Passage of a new farm bill before this Congress adjourns was also up in the air two weeks ago, and a priority for the ASA. Findlay said the organization is also determining how to work on its priority issues within a divided Congress after Jan. 3, when the House turns to Democrat control but the Senate stays with the Republicans.

The 2018 election just happened, but forum afternoon speaker Brian Howey is already looking toward 2020. The founder and editor of Howey Politics Indiana examined Indiana’s past voting patterns to try to render an analysis of the presidential and other elections in two years.

At this point, he noted Indiana is essentially a one-party state. While incumbent Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly was a strong contender for GOP challenger Mike Braun in last month’s election, Howey said the “Trump brand” was still strong enough here to carry Braun into office, combined with voter dissatisfaction on Donnelly’s refusal to help the GOP confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court.

“I think there could be a path for a second Trump term,” Howey noted, adding he doesn’t believe any Republicans will challenge him in a primary bid (although if that happens, he thinks Trump could win again by breaking away and running as an Independent to garner the plurality of a three-way vote split).

The challenge for Democratic contenders in 2020, he said, is to figure out how to attract more progressive voters to them without at the same time alienating rural, more conservative voters as happened this year in some notable national races.

Howey recalled an Indiana exception in 2008 when former President Obama won the state for his first term. He explained the Democrat’s campaign achieved this by setting up offices and canvassing in Republican-dominated counties in the state, “shaving margins” off GOP candidate John McCain’s support – Obama only eked out a win, but a win nonetheless.

Either way, Howey thinks the next two years will be critical for farmers and encourages them to speak more with their local media to “amplify” their voices and explain ag issues – and what they need – to non-farming voters. He said local newspapers and broadcasters are often receptive to ag story ideas; likewise, he thinks there is more support among the general public for farmers than producers may think.

“Don’t underestimate the goodwill most people have for the work you do,” he said.

12/12/2018