By CELESTE BAUMGARTNER
Ohio Correspondent

MCHENRY, Ill. — The USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report for September will show the smallest herd size in four years, according to Allendale, Inc. This marks eight straight quarters of herd declines.

Yet, there may be a bright spot on the horizon, according to Rich Nelson, Allendale’s director of research. “In terms of numbers we have about a 3 percent smaller hog herd than last year,” he said. “This continues the contraction that has been going on in the industry since the spring of 2008.”

Key facts included the grain situation in 2008, which started the liquidation, Nelson said. Then, the tanking economy caused problems in 2008 and 2009.

“In 2009 we had that swine flu (commonly known as the H1N1 virus) issue which hurt our exports,” he said. “Producers have liquidated due to all of these rough factors.

“One thing we’re looking at right now, we do think that producers are steadying their liquidation pace and maybe will start expansion as we go into 2011.”

Producers have made some decent money since this spring, Nelson added. Exports are on track. Liquidation is slowing and, after two years of liquidation, supplies are low.

In addition to all those good factors, U.S. consumers are beginning to accept a little more pork in their diet, with bacon being the superstar. Still, the slaughter of sows, the base breeding herd animal, was down 14 percent, Nelson said.

Hog slaughter is predicted to remain under the previous-year levels through the first quarter of 2011. “So, we have not turned that corner yet into expansion,” Nelson said. “All areas in the country are about the same.”

According to the National Pork Producers Council, there are more than 67,000 pork operations in the United States, compared with nearly 3 million in the 1950s. Operations have grown in size; 53 percent of those farms now produce 5,000 or more pigs every year.