USDA’s September Hogs and Pigs report said the breeding herd was 0.6 percent larger than a year ago and the market hog inventory was up 1 percent compared to Sept. 1, 2010. Record hog prices this summer appear to have put some hog producers in an expansionary mood. 

Litters farrowed during June-August were down 1.5 percent, but because pigs per litter were up 2.2 percent, the summer pig crop was up 0.7 percent. USDA is predicting the number of sows to farrow this fall will be down 0.2 percent and they predict December-February farrowings will be 0.5 percent higher than a year earlier. If the number of sows that farrow this winter is above the year-ago level, it will be the first time since March-May 2008. I am predicting 2012 hog slaughter at 112 million head, up 1.6 percent from this year. 

USDA said the number of pigs weighing 180 pounds or more on Sept. 1 was up 3.4 percent. It looks like September hog slaughter will total about 3.7 percent more than last year. The September survey put the inventory of hogs weighing 120 to 179 pounds at 100.7 percent of last year, and the number of market hogs weighing less than 120 pounds at 100.4 percent of last year. 

All the key report numbers were higher than the average of the pre-release trade forecast, yet the futures market held steady to higher this week. Either this indicates traders don’t agree with the pre-release forecasts or are optimistic about meat demand. China appears to be buying a lot of U.S. pork. 

Today’s close for the October lean hog futures contract, $93.37 per cwt., was up $4.58 from last Friday. The December lean hog futures contract settled at $87.80 per cwt., up $4.08 from the previous Friday. February gained $3.66 this week to settle at $91.57 per cwt. 

The pork cutout value rose for the third week in a row. USDA’s Thursday afternoon calculated pork cutout value was $98.08 per cwt., up 57 cents from the previous Thursday. Loins and butts were lower, hams and bellies were higher. 

The national average negotiated carcass price for direct delivered hogs on the morning report today was $87.34 per cwt., up $2.47 from last Friday. The Friday morning price report for the Western Corn Belt was $90.65 per cwt. Iowa-Minnesota averaged $90.68 per cwt. Eastern Corn Belt barrows and gilts averaged $84.10 per cwt. of carcass, far below the Western Corn Belt for the fourth week. Friday’s top live hog price at Peoria was $60 per cwt. Zumbrota, Minn.’s top was also $60 per cwt. 

Readers with questions or comments for Ron Plain may write to him in care of this publication.