LEXINGTON, Ky. — Except for a couple of instances, Kentucky never saw much of a winter. In fact, the week before spring felt more like summer.

With the trees and flowers budding, it would seem natural to think about planting crops and in some cases, corn growers in western Kentucky have done just that. But ag experts warn that early planting comes with a risk both to their crop and their wallets.

University of Kentucky (UK) College of Agriculture Economist Cory Walters said there are a couple of pro and con factors to consider.

“One is with crop insurance. Farmers would forego any replanting payments if they plant before the earliest planting date, and that date changes by region,” he said. “For Kentucky it’s April 1. So essentially if that happens, they have to pay out of their pocket the cost to replant.”

Walters said the other thing to consider is the September futures market, which as of last week was 28 cents at a premium over the December market.

“If you can plant some percentage of your crop early, you could, potentially, especially the further down south you go, get in on that September contract, which would offer you that extra 28 cents on just futures,” he said. “That’s a big incentive, plus basis could be quite a bit better than going into an October delivery date.”

Walters noted while there still is the gamble of a frost, there is a benefit in that the September futures market could equate to another $42 per acre, at 150 bushels per acre.

Farmers could consider planting some early and some late to play it safe. Walters said this would be a great hedging opportunity, in that producers would not be forced into planting everything in a two-week window at the end of April. Producers should check with their crop insurance carrier before any early planting just to make sure of the replanting cost issue.

Corn from last year was, in some cases, at all-time highs and is still enjoying solid prices. While it is always a guess as to whether those prices will continue, Walters said existing stocks are low and a report of the slightest change in stock availability could change the market quickly.

“Any time you have low ending stocks and going lower, if there is any news that says there’s going less supply or more supply, it’s going to radically change prices very quickly,” he said. “So if there is a weather scare, prices could roll real fast. The low stocks are really going to pull volatility into the market.”

Walters said the only thing that could temper it is the Prospective Plantings report due out March 30, which is likely to state more acres are being planted over last year. “That’s why I think you’re seeing the corn price not quite as high as this time last year, and when that report comes out we’ll likely see the market go limit (up or down),” he said.

There are two reports coming out: Plantings and the Quarterly Grains report and both are big influences on the market, Walters emphasized.

The demand for corn has driven up planting intentions, lowered existing stocks and created the high prices producers are experiencing. Ethanol and exports especially have kept the demand high, but Walters warns once that demand is more satisfied, farmers will see a price correction.

Other factors such as the value of the U.S. dollar can also be figured into the mix, creating a yo-yo effect on markets, Walters added. But for now, producers in the region will most likely let Mother Nature dictate some of their moves, with some rolling the dice and hoping the warm weather continues.