GREENFIELD, Ind. — As many livestock producers look ahead, their biggest concern is feeding their animals during the winter.

“As a producer my biggest concern is the supply of corn to feed my pigs. More than price, I’m wondering will the supply be there. With the devastating drop, hardly a day goes by that I’m not thinking, ‘Where’s our corn going to come from?’” said Heather Hill, pork producer in Greenfield and president of the Indiana Pork Board.

USDA’s August crop production report estimates Indiana’s corn crop will produce 605 million bushels on yields averaging about 100 bushels per acre. That is a per-acre decrease of 46 bushels from 2011 and 57.4 bushels from Indiana’s five-year average.

“These are remarkably low numbers, especially on the corn,” said Chris Hurt, Purdue Extension agricultural economist. “Indiana is the worst of the major production states in terms of corn production. We knew that early on. It started here and then spread to the west.”

Hurt was among agricultural experts who reviewed the crop production report during a panel discussion at the Indiana State Fairgrounds.

The report projects that the nation’s farmers will produce 10.8 billion bushels of corn, down 13 percent from 2012. Last year also was not a good crop year because of a less severe drought. Soybean production is forecast at 2.6 billion bushels, down 12 percent from last year.

By the end of the first week of August of this year, nearly three-fourths of the state’s corn crop – 73 percent – and 53 percent of soybeans were in poor to very poor condition. USDA estimates that Indiana’s 2012 corn crop will yield nearly 38 percent below trend yields.

“This is the worst departure from trend yields in Indiana in at least 75 years,” said Bob Nielsen, Purdue Extension corn specialist.

In 1988, the last severe-drought year, the corn crop was down 30 percent and soybeans were down 20 percent from the previous year.

Indiana’s soybean crop has potential to recover after recent widespread rains offered relief in recent weeks, said Shaun Casteel, Purdue Extension soybean specialist.

Hurt recently has said that livestock producers may suffer the brunt of this shortage because they do not have insurance or an immediate way to pass on their higher feed costs.

However, he believes hog prices for the last half of 2013 should begin to rise because of early liquidation this summer. 

“The drought is on-going and the impact on feed prices will be dynamic,” Hurt said. “For those hog producers who can survive the financial pressure over the next year, there can be improvement starting in the last half of 2013. 

“Because hog prices should be higher by that point, short feed supplies will have been rationed out, and prospects for more normal 2013 yields will hopefully be in place,” Hurt said.

The pork industry had been making a cautious comeback before the historic drought affected corn, soybean and hay production nationwide, said Shane Ellis, livestock economist at Iowa State University.

“The cost of soybean meal and corn is through the roof. Sows kept for farrowing will be down. There is already some sow culling going on. The market is sensitive to that profitability,” Ellis said.

Now, that comeback is not only halted, but reversed as a record number of hogs are going to market, Ellis said. Producers are facing heavy losses in the short term due to low hog prices, he said.

Feeder pigs are selling for the lowest price in recent history, he said. Those pigs that do not have a contracted price are selling for as low as $13, Ellis said.

Something to take away from this year is the need to plan ahead, Ellis said.

Ellis encourages livestock producers to “lock in a margin” by forward pricing their feed. In a year like this, those contracts are of “pretty dramatic importance,” he said.

“Now if you want to sleep at night, protect your margin. It takes the major risks out,” Ellis said.

While contracts may not allow for large profits, Ellis said they provide stability.

“If you’ll always be making a little money, you’ll always be in business ... Protect everything on a margin,” he said.