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October blows in with more of a chance for frost next week
Oct. 1-7

This tiny corner of the earth that is ours gives a feeling of deep content and security; this is the base to which we can always come back, and be ourselves, alone, completely free from the outside world.
-Charles Burchfield

Lunar phase and lore

The Cobweb Moon is full on Sept. 29 at 10:19 p.m. and then wanes throughout the week, entering its last quarter on Oct. 8 at 2:33 a.m. Rising in the evening and setting in the morning, this moon is overhead (its best position for fishing) after midnight.
Hunters and anglers who prefer to sleep late will find that the second-best lunar time for their activities occurs after lunch. Dieting will be more troublesome in the middle of the night, especially as the cool fronts of Oct. 2 and 7 approach.

The moon in Taurus on Oct. 1-4 and in Cancer Oct. 6-8 favor the rooting of autumn landscape plantings and the setting in of spring bulbs.

The sun now advances quickly toward winter, moving from a declination of -3 degrees, 16 minutes on Oct. 1 to -13 degrees, 50 minutes (out of a possible -23 degrees, 26 minutes) on Oct. 31. By the end of October’s second week, the sun has reached the same declination it holds at the end of February.

The Draconid meteors are scheduled to arrive in the late evenings of Oct. 7-8. The Draconids usually appear before midnight, unlike the Orionids, which will peak in and around Orion after midnight of Oct. 21-22. The moon should not interfere with viewing of either of these showers.

Meteorology for October

Cold fronts typically cross the Mississippi River on about the following dates: Oct. 2, 7, 13, 17, 23 and 30. The period between Oct. 19-25 is the time most likely to bring serious storms or damaging frost. Expect snow in the northern tier of states with any of these weather systems.

New moon on Oct. 15 and full moon on Oct. 29 increase the likelihood of a hurricane coming ashore in the Gulf or a strong frost-bearing cold wave moving across the Plains around those dates.

Weather trends
Light frost strikes 10-20 percent of all the nights next week, with Oct. 3 most likely to bring a damaging freeze in the 20s. Highs in the 80s occur on approximately 10 percent of the days, and 70s can be expected 30 percent of the time.

Moderate 60s dominate 50 percent of the afternoons, while colder 40s and 50s come 15-20 percent of the time. The likelihood for colder weather almost always increases after Oct. 4, when the chances for highs only in the 50s swells from 15 percent to 30 percent. Rain falls about one day in three.

Zeitgebers (events in nature that tell the time of year) for next week include the full coloring of ash, box elder, hackberry and locust trees.

Frost watch

The following chart shows the chances that frost will often have occurred by the date indicated. Calculations are based on typical frequency of freezing temperatures at average elevations along the 40th Parallel during the month of October.

The data can be adjusted roughly by adding 5 percent for each 100 miles north or south that Parallel. Local frost histories, of course, offer much greater detail.

  Light Frost Killing Frost
Oct. 1:  80 percent 10 percent
Oct. 5:  85 percent 15 percent
Oct. 10: 90 percent 20 percent
Oct. 15: 95 percent 30 percent
Oct. 20: 98 percent 40 percent
Oct. 25: 99 percent 50 percent
Oct. 30: 99 percent 65 percent
Daybook

Oct. 1: As the weather cools, keep warm water on hand for your brood ewes and does. They will be drinking more now.

Oct. 2: Consider applying nitrogen, phosphate and potash to the fields and garden plots after harvest in order to decrease the springtime workload.

Oct. 3: Put in root crops, spring flower bulbs and transplant perennials during the next two weeks while the moon wanes.
The waning moon also favors clipping hair, trimming hooves, worming livestock, putting on shingles, pruning shrubs or trees to retard growth, killing weeds, cutting firewood and having surgery.

Oct. 4: Pods of the Eastern burning bush are open all along the 40th Parallel, and hawthorn berries redden. Wild grapes are purple, and the tree line that seemed so deep in summer just a few weeks ago is suddenly poised to break into its final color of the year.

Oct. 5: The Japanese beetles complete their departure when middle fall arrives next week. In their place, cucumber beetles hide in the roses.

Oct. 6: Dig up cannas, caladiums, tuberous begonias and gladiolus prior to heavy frost. Transplant new trees and shrubs, then make sure they have plenty of water.

Oct. 7: Chimney swifts, wood thrushes, barn swallows and red-eyed vireos move south this week of the year. Flocks of blackbirds and robins migrate across the countryside. Yellow-bellied sapsuckers move through the woods. Woolly bear caterpillars suddenly multiply. Cobwebs become rare.

Listen to Poor Will’s Radio Almanack on podcast anytime at www.wyso.org and follow Poor Will on Twitter: @poor wilsalmanac
9/26/2012