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Crash in Global Dairy Trade prices not 'April Fool's joke'

By LEE MIELKE
Mielke Market Weekly 

The April 1 Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction added to the losses incurred in the March 17 event as the weighted average for all products plunged 10.8 percent, likely due to Fonterra increasing the volumes it made available to the auction over its prior forecast. The result follows an 8.8 percent drop on March 17.

All products offered were down, led by buttermilk powder, down 25.1 percent, following a loss of 11.6 percent last time. Whole milk powder was down 13.3 percent, following a 9.6 percent drop last time. Cheddar cheese was down 10.5 percent after dropping 7.4 percent in the last event. Skim milk powder followed close behind, down 9.9 percent April 1 following a 5.5 percent loss. Rennet casein was next, down 8.0 percent, after a 15.2 percent loss last time, followed by butter, down 7.6 percent, after seeing a 9.4 percent hit last time. Anhydrous milkfat rounded out the losses, down 5.3 percent, following an 8.4 percent drop in the March 17 event.

FC Stone reports the average GDT butter price equated to about $1.4782 per pound U.S., down from $1.6126 in the March 17 event ($1.4421/lb. on 80 percent butterfat, down from $1.5733/lb.). Contrast that to CME butter, which closed April 2 at $1.74 per pound. The GDT Cheddar cheese average was $1.2642 per pound U.S., down from $1.4198. The U.S. block Cheddar CME price closed April 2 at $1.58 per pound. GDT skim milk powder, at $1.1192 per pound U.S., is down from $1.2390, and the whole milk powder average at $1.1513 per pound U.S., is down from $1.3280 in the last event. The CME Grade A nonfat dry milk price closed April 2 at 97.75 cents per pound.

Export report

The dairy farmer-funded Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) continues to export product. CWT accepted 18 requests for export assistance March 30 from Dairy Farmers of America, Northwest Dairy Assoc. (Darigold), and Tillamook County Creamery Assoc. who have contracts to sell 3.976 million pounds of Cheddar, Gouda and Monterey Jack cheese and 121,254 pounds of butter to customers in Asia, the Middle East and Central America. The product has been contracted for delivery through September 2015.

Year-to-date, CWT has assisted member cooperatives to sell 23.437 million pounds of cheese and 24.333 million pounds of butter to 22 countries on five continents. The amounts of cheese and butter in these sales contracts represent the equivalent of 763.819 million pounds of milk on a milkfat basis.

Looking to last week’s cash dairy products, the GDT likely put a damper on rising cheese and butter prices although the 40-pound block Cheddar closed the shortened Good Friday week at $1.58 per pound, up 4 cents on the week and the highest level since Jan. 13, 2015, but a whopping 77 cents below a year ago. The 500-pound barrels finished at $1.5950, up a nickel on the week and 63 cents below a year ago. Six cars of block traded hands on the week and three of barrel. The ever lagging NDPSR-surveyed U.S. average block price hit $1.5811 per pound, up 0.7 cent, while the barrels averaged $1.5819, up 1.9 cents.

FC Stone dairy broker Dave Kurzawski raised the question Thursday whether it is plausible that solid U.S. demand has absorbed enough of the dairy export losses we have been seeing, at least for the moment.

Benchmark prices

The USDA announced the March Federal order Class III benchmark milk price Wednesday, April 1, at $15.56 per cwt., up 10 cents from February, $7.77 below March 2014, but $1.59 above California’s comparable Class 4b cheese milk price. It equates to about $1.34 per gallon, up a penny from February and compares to $2.01 a year ago. That put the First Quarter Class III average at $15.73, down from $22.61 at this time a year ago and $17.44 in 2013. Looking ahead, the April Class III futures contract settled Thursday, April 2, at $15.59; May, $15.57; June, $15.56; with a peak of $17.25 in December.

The March Class IV price is $13.80, down 2 cents from February and $9.86 below a year ago. The First Quarter Class IV average stands at $13.62, down from $23.14 a year ago and $17.71 in 2013.

The four-week, NDPSR-surveyed cheese price used to calculate the March prices averaged $1.5750 per pound, up 3 cents from February. Butter averaged $1.6945, up .2 cents. Nonfat dry milk averaged $1.0217, down a penny, and dry whey averaged 48.24 cents per pound, down 3.5 cents from February.

The California Department of Food and Agriculture announced its March Class 4b cheese milk price on Wednesday as well at $13.97 per cwt., up 19 cents from February but $8.19 below March 2014. The First Quarter 4b average stands at $13.83, down from $21.20 a year ago and $15.42 in 2013.

The March Class 4a butter powder price is $13.42 per cwt., down 4 cents from February and $9.95 below a year ago. The three month 4a average now stands at $13.32, down from $22.86 a year ago and $17.65 in 2013.

4/8/2015