By RON PLAIN
Hog Outlook 

Wholesale belly prices were $65.45 per cwt. Friday, which is less than one-third of what they were a year ago. The morning’s pork cutout value was $65.72 per cwt. FOB the plants. That is down 42 cents from the week before and down $59.40 from a year ago. Wholesale belly prices are lower than the pork cutout. That means bellies are a below-average-value pork cut.

USDA’s April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report predicted 2015 pork production will be a record 24.24 billion pounds, which is up 6.1 percent compared to last year. It expects barrow and gilt prices to average somewhere around $50 per cwt. live or $67 per cwt. on a carcass basis.

U.S. pork exports were down 10.1 percent in February with most of the decline in shipments to China. Pork exports equaled 19.4 percent of February U.S. production.

The labor dispute at West Coast ports ended in late February. Hopefully, pork exports will increase as we move forward. Pork imports were up 32.2 percent during February with most of the increase coming from Canada and Poland. Pork imports equaled 4.3 percent of U.S. production during February.

Live hog imports were up 8.7 percent in February, with a 2.7 percent increase in weaner/feeder pig imports and a 42.8 percent increase in imports of other hogs.

Domestic pork demand was up 11.6 percent in February compared to a year earlier. Export demand was down 20.6 percent.

Hog prices are less than half of what they were at this time last year. Thursday’s negotiated carcass price for plant delivered hogs averaged $58.04 per cwt., which is 95 cents higher than a week earlier, but a huge $61.26 lower than a year ago.

The national average negotiated barrow and gilt carcass price on morning sales Friday was $58.74 per cwt., up $3.39 from the previous Friday. The morning’s price is 88.3 percent of the pork cutout value.

The Western Corn Belt averaged $60.66 per cwt. Friday morning. Because of low sales volume and confidentiality rules, there were no Eastern Corn Belt or Iowa-Minnesota negotiated hog carcass price reports that morning.

Peoria had a top live price Friday of $38 per cwt., $3 higher than the previous week. The top price for interior Missouri live hogs was $40 per cwt., the same as the previous Friday.

Hog slaughter last week totaled 2.188 million head, down 0.3 percent from the week before, but up 8.6 percent from same week last year. Slaughter has been above year-ago each week since mid-January.

The average live slaughter weight of barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota two weeks ago was 283.5 pounds, up 0.1 pound from the week before, but down 2 pounds from a year ago. This was the second week with Iowa slaughter weights below the year-ago level, following 103 consecutive weeks with weights above the year-earlier level.

The April lean hog futures contract closed Friday at $62.55 per cwt., down 62 cents for the week. May hog futures ended the week at $71.77 per cwt., up $3.42 from the week before. June hogs gained $2.45 last week to close at $78.15 per cwt. The July contract settled at $79.35 per cwt.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Ron Plain may write to him in care of this publication.