URBANA, Ill. — With a favorable planting and early growing season, attention in the corn and soybean markets is shifting toward acreage considerations.

The USDA’s survey for the March 31 Prospective Plantings report revealed producer intentions to plant 89.199 million acres of corn in 2015, 1.398 million fewer acres than 2014. Soybean intentions were reported at 84.635 million acres, 934,000 more than last year.

According to University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good, estimates of actual planted area of these two crops will be revealed in the June 30 Acreage report and final acreage estimates will be in the January 2016 annual Crop Production report. Acreage estimates may also change with the release of monthly Crop Production reports from August-November.

"History suggests that acreage estimates will differ from intentions reported in March," Good said. "Before examining that history, it is useful to understand a bit of the USDA acreage estimation procedures.

"Estimates of planting intentions are based on the March Agricultural Survey conducted in early March. The survey is a probability survey in that operations surveyed (about 84,000 in 2015) represent a sample drawn from a list of all producers in such a way that all operations have a chance to be included. Surveyed producers are asked to report acres planted or to be planted this spring or summer.

"The June acreage estimates are based on a combination of the June Agricultural Survey of producers (about 71,000 in 2014) and area frame surveys of parcels of land of about one square mile in size," he continued. "About 11,000 such parcels were surveyed in 2014. Producers were asked to account for all the acreage in each parcel.

"Acreage estimates include intentions for unplanted area. The final estimate of planted acreage is based on the December Agricultural Survey of producers (about 83,000 in 2014) supplemented with administrative data, primarily acreage reported to the Farm Service Agency."

For a more complete description of these procedures, see the "Marketing and Outlook Brief" dated March 23, 2011.