| While most farmers and ranchers spent February focused on rising futures and cash grain prices, the USDA churned out facts, figures and reports that received scant notice. USDA’s data, however, contained critical insight to 2007 and beyond and raised important points for policymakers to ponder.
The most detailed and interesting numbers arrived Feb. 14: USDA’s Agricultural Projections to 2016, an annual publication of 10-year estimates (but not official forecasts) of acres, income and prices served up by department’s Economic Research Service.
Because the report’s decade-long estimates cannot possibly predict 10 years of changes in weather, economics or policy, its out-year numbers are little more than guesses.
Its near-year numbers, however, contain some remarkable projections.
For example, on Feb. 14, USDA guessed 2007 planted corn acres at 86 million, or 7.4 million over 2006’s planted acreage.
Of that boost, ERS projected 4.6 million comes at the expense of soybeans - 75.6 million acres in 2006, 71 million in 2007.
Anyone with any inkling of today’s corn market dynamics would say both those numbers are far too light.
Everyone expects more corn and less beans than USDA.
Turns out, so does USDA. On March 1, Chief Economist Keith Collins, in an address at USDA’s Outlook Conference, tacked another million acres onto the Feb. 14 number. Officially, USDA now foresees 2007 corn acres at 87 million, the most since 1946.
Big acres and good weather means a big crop; USDA estimates 12.2 billion bushels will be harvested this fall, making 2007’s crop a record. (Got storage?) But that huge supply, according to USDA, |
