URBANA, Ill. — Growers hoping for a corn price spike thanks to the deluge of rains in late April and early May through Missouri, Illinois and Indiana have technology mostly to thank for almost no movement in the markets the past two weeks, experts say.

 

And USDA forecasters aren’t helping much either, continuing to predict corn growers still could top the 170 bushels per-acre yield mark later this year, matching or exceeding the level set only twice, in 2014 and last year.

While corn acres are down overall, ceding to an expected higher demand for soybeans overseas, the USDA in its most recent yield report May 10 has growers harvesting close to 14 billion bushels for 2017, despite crop replantings that are about triple that of most years in the Midwest.

Some of the acres planned for corn before the wet conditions may end up flipping to beans, but it doesn’t appear a significant amount of change will occur, in large part because growers have the equipment and seed technology to get back into the ground quickly, said Todd Hubbs, an agricultural economist with the University of Illinois.

 

“The currently projected (U.S.) corn yield maintains the previous projections from USDA and does not reflect, as of yet, any of the potential issues associated with the cold and wet spring experienced by large portions of the Corn Belt,” he said.

If anything, weather conditions later in the summer may have more of an impact on yields for both corn and beans than this spring’s wet conditions.

“Yield potential for both crops will unfold over the next few months and will be determined by weather conditions,” Hubbs said. “Additionally, planted acreage levels are yet to be determined and still have a significant amount of uncertainty due to planting conditions.”

Meanwhile, corn prices have remained steady as growers continue to look for the crop to break the $4 bushel price sometime soon. In Illinois, the corn market last week traded in a narrow range of $3.45 cash, $3.65 for November and $3.77 for March 2018.

“Corn has been in a pretty tight trading range the past 12 weeks,” said Ellen Dearden, a market analyst based in central Illinois.

Complicating the possibility of a bull market for corn is the expected large harvests in South America, Hubbs noted. Brazilian corn production is projected at 3.78 billion bushels and Argentinean production is pegged at 1.57 billion – crops that will enter the market this summer and provide stiff competition to U.S. exports, he said.

 

Hubbs explained bean prices appear more vulnerable to downward price movements than corn, given large current supplies and the expectation of a large crop this year.

“There is likely less risk of lower corn prices for several reasons. Soybean acreage is more likely to surpass planting intentions, creating a scenario in which production could be large even with a modest yield loss. Soybean yields may also be less vulnerable to problematic summer weather than corn,” he said.