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Views and opinions: Timely rain storms may arrive during early June

 

Dry weather kicked off this past weekend, and we will keep that dry pattern going through early afternoon May 31. Temperatures will remain warm, and we should see good dry down leading to good fieldwork potential. However, we still have a stronger frontal system moving in to finish the week.

Showers can develop as soon as late May 31 and hold through June 1 with secondary scattered action lingering for June 2. Combined rain totals can be from a half-inch to 1 1/2 inches with coverage at 90 percent of the Eastern Corn Belt.

The map shows combined rain totals for the next seven days. Keep in mind, these totals come from basically this one event that finishes the week.

Going forward, we see a dry start to next week. We are pushing back our next front about 36 hours, now looking for action to arrive midday, June 7. Rain totals from that front look to be from a half-inch to 1 inch with coverage at 100 percent of the state.

Tropical storm Alberto formed in the western Gulf on May 24 and made landfall along the Gulf Coast this past weekend. Why is this important to mention? Well, the remains of Alberto have been meandering around the Deep South for the past few days, and that lingering moisture has the potential to enhance our front for the last part of this week.

We don’t think that it’s a direct push of the remains up into the Eastern Corn Belt, but it may bump precipitation totals from the May 31-June 1 front, slightly, especially over southern Indiana, southern Ohio and Kentucky.

Fun fact: Four of the last six “Albertos” did impact the U.S. mainland (1982, 1994, 2006 and 20’12).

If we take a quick look a bit farther out, heading into the week of June 10-16, temperatures are likely to be normal to slightly below normal, and it should be somewhat wet – with precipitation normal to above normal. We are starting the period off with a minor front on June 10, bringing up to a half-inch to 1 inch of precipitation.

The low actually passes off to our north and west, meaning we get just a glancing blow. A much stronger front sweeps through for late in the week, June 14-16. Rain totals there can be from a half-inch to 2 inches.

The following week is showing signs of being drier, with our only front lifting in to the region late on June 22 into June 23, bringing up to a half-inch of rain. That week should be above normal on temperatures and near to above normal on precipitation, especially if we get any delay in that front from late in week 3, which is definitely possible. Exact timing on systems this far out is really not possible.

 

Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.

5/30/2018