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Views and opinions: Rainfall may be timely during June’s first half

 

We are in the midst of a mostly dry week over the Eastern Corn Belt. June 5 threw a bit of a curveball to parts of the region as we had some pesky moisture wrapping up around the backside of a strong low pressure system in eastern Canada. Some of that managed to make it down into parts of Michigan, Ohio and even Indiana. But, not all of us saw it.

No matter if you were dry on June 5 or if Mother Nature thumbed her nose at you and brought a bit of rain, it does not change our outlook for the rest of the week. June 6-8 all have plenty of sunshine and a very dry set up.

We should see excellent drying potential for forage work, evaporation rates near maximum, and temperatures will slowly gain a couple of degrees per day. We will be near normal for June 6, but slightly above normal for daytime highs by June 8. High pressure will generally be in control.

A strong frontal complex moves through for the weekend. On June 7, we will see rain and heavy thunderstorms break out over northern parts of the region – Michigan, northern Illinois and northern Indiana. Then the action sags south through the evening of June 9 and into June 10, bringing moisture to the rest of the Eastern Corn Belt. The northern half of the region, from I-70 north, can see rain totals of a half-inch to two inches with the bulk of that coming on June 9, while the southern half of the area sees rain of a quarter-inch to 1 inch with most of that coming overnight June 9 through early afternoon on June 10.

Coverage of the entire event will end up being near 90 percent of the region. Thunderstorms on June 9 in northern Indiana and northeast Illinois show characteristics of being strong, but it is still a bit early to call for any significant severe weather event. We are just on the lookout for some heavier rains.

The map shows one model’s take on the weekend precipitation, but we think it is overdone on southern Indiana moisture just a little bit.

Dry weather is behind this system to start next week on June 11-12. Temperatures will be near to a bit above normal with good drying and low relative humidity. Our next front arrives on June 13 and can bring a quarter-inch to 1 inch rain to about 80 percent of the region.

The front moves through quickly, and we should see most action done by sunset June 13. Dry for June 14-15 to start the 11-16 day forecast window.

A front arrives for June 16. Rainfall can be from one-tenth to eight-tenths of an inch with coverage at 60 percent of Indiana. Then a strong high pressure system will move in from the northwest and should keep the start of the week after next on the dry side. There could be another system threatening the region around June 21 into June 22.

So, in general, after this drier week, we move into a pattern that can be summed up with the term “timely rains”…so at this point, weather looks pretty good for crop growth and development.

 

Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.

6/7/2018