By DOUG SCHMITZ

Iowa Correspondent

DES MOINES, Iowa — Cooler, wetter conditions for the rest of the growing season are pointing to a late harvest, according to state and national agricultural meteorologists – which likely has Midwest farmers questioning whether crops are going to reach full maturity this fall.

Iowa State Climatologist Justin Glisan said, “An anomalously wet fall and winter (both the third-wettest in 147 years), on top of 2018 being the second wettest on record, delayed planting.”

He said this will push the growing window and harvest further into the fall for many places around the state. “The recent stint of unseasonably warm weather has also pushed the crops along,” he said, adding “summer outlooks show above-average chances of cooler and wetter conditions moving forward.

“Perhaps a silver lining for farmers is the fact that freeze dates are coming later in the season, when compared to the long-term behavior.”

The state’s August 12 USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) crop report said 92 percent of corn has begun to silk, with 87 percent of soybeans starting to bloom, and 89 percent of oats harvested for grain. Farmers continued to experience abnormally dry field conditions across most of the state for the third week in a row.

Iowa Agriculture Secretary Mike Naig said he’s had reports of thistle caterpillars and gray leaf spot, and encouraged farmers to scout their fields.

In Illinois, harvested corn, forecast at 10.45 million acres, is down 4 percent from 2018. Harvested soybeans, forecast at 9.94 million, is down 8 percent from 2018, and harvested winter wheat is forecast at 590,000 acres, up 30,000 from 2018.

“If realized, this would be the lowest planted and harvested acreage since 1998,” the Illinois NASS report stated.

Indiana’s dry weather has impacted corn and soybean development, and warm temperatures and below-average precipitation brought soil moisture levels to their lowest point so far this season. “Signs of moisture stress were visible across the state, especially in fields with coarse soils, and irrigation was running where available,” said its NASS report.

In Kentucky, NASS said farmers experienced near-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall: “Parts of the state received some rain; however, dry conditions persist. Drought coupled with hot weather has taken a toll on some pastureland and hay. Later-planted corn and soybeans could be damaged if the dry conditions continue.”

Michigan’s earlier-planted cornfields continued to silk and dough. Spotters said the heat and lack of rain has resulted in leaf rolling and poor root structure in certain fields. Soybean progress continued to be well behind the five-year average, and more fields were reported to be showing signs of heat stress. Most farmers finished winter wheat harvest.

In Ohio, corn and soybean progress continued to lag behind and could use timely rains for grain fill, NASS said, adding warm and dry conditions continued as farmers were busy in the fields. Wheat harvest wrapped up, with oats also harvested during ideal harvest conditions and surpassing the five-year average.

In Tennessee, hay baling was the dominant activity across the state, with pop-up showers doing little to slow the second or third cuttings. Other activities included spraying fungicides on soybeans and topping tobacco.

“Warmer temperatures with no rain have slowed forage growth,” said Chris Ramsey, Sullivan County extension agent.

Looking at the current Midwest outlooks through October, Glisan said there are above-average chances for wetter-than-normal conditions, while equal chances of above/below- or near-average temperatures. He said the outlook moving into the fall (September-November) indicates above-average chances for warmer-than-normal conditions and equal chances of conditions for precipitation.

“A warm and dry stretch near harvest would be a much-welcomed change, compared to harvest 2018,” he said.

Dennis Todey, USDA Midwest Climate Hub director in Ames, Iowa, said corn definitely needs some additional heat (measured in growing-degree days) to get to maturity.

“For this to happen, we need to have near- to above-average temperatures throughout the rest of the growing season,” he explained. “The above-average needs to occur later because above-average right now is bordering on stressful conditions.”

He said that means the overall fall outlook for the Midwest, as a whole, is a late harvest. “We are going to have to let some crops sit in the field for some time to make sure it matures/dries. I don’t see a path for much early harvesting unless people are taking crop for silage or very high moisture to feed livestock.”

That, combined with the possibility of still having some moist soils going into the fall, could cause some additional harvest problems. “It is possible we could have soils wet deeper because of limited crop rooting depth,” he said. “That would leave less soil moisture capacity to take up additional fall precipitation.”

He added farmers also need to be prepared to dry corn, given a potentially wet grain harvest: “The biggest thing is being patient. Harvest will likely go later.”

Dale Mohler, AccuWeather senior commodity forecaster in State College, Pa., said an on-time freeze is a real possibility – especially since a chilly air mass is expected to drop toward the Midwest sometime in early to mid-October.

“A freeze at that time this year would no doubt damage at least some of the late-planted corn and soybeans,” he noted. “While this potential freeze is not a certainty from this far away, we think it’s a little greater than a 50 percent chance of occurring.

“November was chilly last year, but this November should be on the mild side of normal, aiding late harvest efforts.”