In dairy politics, I talked with Bob Gray, editor of the Northeast Dairy Farmers Cooperative’s newsletter, in the August 19 Dairy radio Now broadcast about the importance of dairy farmers commenting on the H-2A Modernization Proposed Rule to the U.S. Department of Labor. The proposal would expand the H-2A program from a “seasonal” one to one that allows immigrant employees to work for a full year on dairy operations.

Gray says the existing seasonal program works for fruit and vegetable growers for peak planting and harvesting times but there is no program that allows dairy farmers to hire workers for full time year around employment.

He urged dairy producers to make their case to the Department of Labor, citing the workload on a dairy, which is an easy case to make because it’s a 27/7 operation. The important point to make, according to Gray, is how hard it is to find local help. Many communities have a low unemployment rate, plus the population in rural areas is aging so there’s not a lot of young people to hire.

He added that these are not low skilled jobs so they need to be trained. “It’s expensive equipment, you have to milk the cows, its herd management, so these jobs take very important skills to perform them.”

Dairy farmers should show advertisements they have placed in local papers and other efforts they have made to find local help, he said, and they should stress to the Department of Labor that if the H-2A program is expanded to include full time workers, that would give them another option in hiring immigrant workers. They should also point out that there is a lot of competition in hiring locally but that most dairy farms pay above or well above the minimum wage.

Comments can be sent to http://www.regulations.gov and should include Docket No. ETA-2019-0007 RIN 1205-AB89 Temporary Agricultural Employment of H-2A Nonimmigrants in the U.S.

 And, while you’re writing your members of Congress, tell them to approve the U.S. Mexico, Canada free trade agreement (USMCA).

The Agriculture Department lowered its 2019 and 2020 milk production estimates in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report based on expectations of a smaller dairy herd and slower growth in milk per cow.

2019 production and marketings were estimated at 217.9 and 216.9 billion pounds respectively, down 300 million pounds from last month’s estimate. If realized, 2019 production would be up just 300 million pounds or 0.1 percent from 2018.

2020 production and marketings were estimated at 221.4 and 220.3 billion pounds respectively, down 400 million and 500 million pounds respectively from last month’s estimates. If realized, 2020 production would be up 3.5 billion pounds or 1.6 percent from 2019.

Cheese, butter, and whey price forecasts for 2019 were raised. The NDM price forecast was reduced on current price weakness and slowing demand. The 2020 price forecasts for cheese, butter, and NDM were lowered from the previous month, but the whey price forecast was unchanged.

The 2019 Class III price forecast was raised on higher forecast cheese and whey prices. Look for a 2019 average of $16.30 per hundredweight (cwt.), up 25 cents from last month’s estimate and compares to $14.61 in 2018 and $16.17 in 2017. The 2020 average is put at $16.55, down a dime from last month’s estimate.

The 2019 Class IV price forecast was reduced as the lower forecast NDM price more than offsets the higher butter price. It is now projected to average $16.30 per cwt., down 15 cents from last month’s estimate, and compares to $14.23 in 2018 and $15.16 in 2017. The 2020 average was pegged at $16.45, down 30 cents from what was expected a month ago.

It was a good week for cheese as traders awaited the July Milk Production report on August 19. The blocks climbed to $1.8925 per pound Wednesday, highest price since Nov. 22, 2016, but closed Friday at $1.88, up 1 1/4-cents on the week and 22 1/2-cents above a year ago. The barrels finished at $1.7650, up 4 1/2-cents on the week, 9 1/2-cents above a year ago, and put the spread at 11 1/2-cents. 9 cars of block traded hands on the week and 33 of barrel.

Cheese market tones are steady in the Midwest, according to Dairy Market News. Demand reports remain mostly positive. Cheddar, mozzarella, and specialty cheese makers report strong sales, as food service upticks are coming on with schools reopening. Some cheesemakers say milk is “in balance.”

U.S. fluid milk sales continue to falter. USDA’s latest data shows 3.4 billion pounds of packaged fluid sales in June Dairy month, down 4.1 percent from June 2018. Conventional product sales totaled 3.3 billion pounds, down 4.2 percent from a year ago. Organic products, at 197 million pounds, were down 2.5 percent and represented about 5.7 percent of total sales for the month.

The August 9 Dairy and Food Market Analyst (DFMA) reported that “IRI data showed Fairlife milk sales declined by 14 percent in the week following the release of the Animal Recovery Mission video showing animal abuse. During July, sales of Fairlife decreased by approximately 17 percent from peak sales in May.”

You’ll recall I reported last week that Indonesia announced that it would increase tariffs on European dairy products and ask its dairy buyers to find alternative sources as a way to counter EU duties on palm biodiesel from Indonesia.

U.S. dairy exporters could benefit from the trade spat, according to the DFMA, which stated; “If Indonesia implements the retaliatory tariffs, it will have a price supportive impact on US whey and skim milk powder markets. In 2018, Indonesia bought 194 million pounds of whey products and 111 million pounds of skim milk powder from Europe,” according to the DFMA.

U.S. exports of whey to China have suffered due to the ongoing trade spat between the two countries and the toll African Swine Fever has taken on the pig population there.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Lee Mielke may write to him in care of this publication.