PEORIA, Ill. — A recent webinar discussed potential flood advisories issued for Corn Belt states and those along the Mississippi River basin. Bryce Anderson, senior meteorologist for DTN, said precipitation amounts in parts of the Corn Belt since Jan. 1 have already exceeded 50 percent above 2019 levels. 

“With Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, into the entire Delta region, and across quite a bit of Iowa, into Minnesota, there has been above average precipitation not just by a little, but by a leap,” reported DTN senior meteorologist Bryce Anderson, during the March 31 DTN webinar. “We’re talking about at least 50 percent above normal, or average, on precipitation to start out this calendar year. That just adds to very wet soils that we came out of 2019 with. 

“Soil moisture profiles as a percentile of average, are, in many areas of the northern Plains, northern Midwest, southern Midwest and into the Delta, into the 99th percentile relative to the long-term average. We’re at a point where even normal precipitation is going to be too much for a lot of this ground.”

According to the National Weather Service, major flooding is projected as likely for Illinois and Iowa river areas, with moderate flooding predicted for other states within the Mississippi River basin. In addition, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warns that ongoing rainfall, highly-saturated soil and an enhanced chance for prolonged spring rainfall will add up to increased chances for flooding across the central U.S., with major flood conditions likely for the upper and middle Mississippi River basins.

“In the last month or so there was just a little band, from southeast Nebraska across the southern half of Iowa and northern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio where there was an easing of that real wet situation. But over the last couple of weeks we have seen some rainstorms that have kind of recharged the situation,” said Anderson. “Looking ahead, this is the situation we are going to have to deal with for this year.”

The senior DTN meteorologist said he doesn’t anticipate many extended dry periods ahead of farmers in the near future, which will lead to major challenges for many farmers planting corn. For that reason, he feels that U.S. corn acreage will suffer again in 2020.

“I think this calls into question some of those real big acreage numbers for corn,” Anderson said, of USDA’s projection for 97 million U.S. corn acres, announced earlier that morning. “Snow and rain are still likely to cause some real wet soil issues for this planting season.”  

Farmers in the Dakotas and northern Corn Belt can expect more precipitation through the end of April, forecast models predict. A section of the Midwest and the Mississippi River Valley have a reduced chance of flooding this year, including parts of Missouri, eastern Nebraska and Kansas. This does not reduce the flood chance within Mississippi and Missouri river basins, Anderson noted. 

“There is going to be a limited period when fieldwork will be available, and I think that leads to some acreage questions. I think also that producers are really going to have to push the envelope on planting speeds, fieldwork speeds, and equipment (selection and maintenance) for this coming season,” he said. “Also, there is going to be more decision making done in regard to soil conditions and I think we are likely to see ground being worked when it is wetter than producers would like, instead of waiting for an ideal or at least tolerable situation.”

Continued or prolonged periods of rain and flooding could lead to a situation similar to 2019, when a record 18 million acres of cropland was enrolled in prevented planting insurance.

“I think prevented planting will still be in the picture this year, and particularly in the northern third of the major crop areas,” said Anderson, before adding a positive note: “I don’t think summer is shaping up as a particularly stressful scenario. The big issues we have are through the spring, kind of like we had a year ago.”