Spring has been tough this year so far, with abnormally harsh weather events contributing to negative farmer temperaments. Is there anything positive on the horizon?

Let’s look at what is happening. Floods, later-than-usual blizzards, continued low commodity prices, and uncertain trade policies are hurting some producers more than others, such as those who won’t be able to plant a crop or who lost calves due to dummy calf syndrome, or other weather-related factors.

April 16 satellite imagery estimates of how many acres of farmland will be unplanted this year due to flooding indicate that about a million acres of cropland are underwater and will dry out too late this growing season to produce a crop, with more flooding expected.

I’ve heard estimates that up to a million calves born so far this spring have succumbed to what is sometimes called “dummy calf syndrome,” or to cold and wet weather during birthing that compromised the well-being of otherwise healthy newborns. I am familiar with dummy calves and I understand why cows persisted in calving in sheltered areas along creeks, because they felt secluded and safe.

Then the creeks rose.

“Dummy” calves are usually big and appear healthy at birth, but they are unable to stand and don’t know how to nurse. The contributing factors aren’t fully understood, but may include unusually cold weather during their last two months of their fetal development.

Pregnant heifers and cows consume extra feed to maintain their warmth and nutrition during persistent cold spells; the extra nutrition contributes to heavier birth weights of their late-term fetuses. In some cases anoxia occurs when the mothers have more difficult and prolonged labor, thus causing neurological compromises to their babies.

The weak newborns require much care, like help with parturition, calf heaters, assisted feeding of colostrum, and medications; even then most don’t survive. More information is needed to adequately prevent dummy calf syndrome.

Prices for many farm products could improve this year if there are reductions in grain production in overly wet areas and fewer calves for feedlots next fall and winter. Rising cattle prices could also improve consumer demand for pork, chicken, turkey, and lamb/mutton.

Less is also known about seasonal vegetable (e.g., sweet corn, dry beans), fruit, and wine production, because fuller outcomes of weather conditions and their effects on growing and harvesting are still unknown. It’s possible that given the current cold and wet spring, market prices could improve for these items.

I wish I had a handle on dairy production and milk prices, but I don’t. It’s one of the most difficult areas of the agricultural economy to assess and predict because factors other than production and weather conditions have more influence over dairy prices. I can’t offer more because I don’t have access to the right inside information.

A reasoned case can be made that farm prices are the “canary” for how the U.S. economy will materialize over the next few years. Higher prices for food and other agriculture-related necessities will make it economically harder on many consumers.

It’s not uncommon for farming recessions to precede recessions for the rest of the United States – and recoveries likewise. To illustrate, the era of low farm prices in the early 2000s was followed by rapid economic boom in the farming sector, beginning around 2008 up through the fall of 2014, and then followed by a depression in the farm economy that continues today.

Simultaneously, the rest of the U.S. was doing relatively well in the early 2000s, but a significant national recession developed around 2008, just when agriculture entered a highly positive era. The national recession continued as the farm economy improved for several years, until growth in the general economy emerged in the two years prior to the election of 2016 and continues today, while farm prices declined during these same years.

How much longer will the overall U.S. economy continue to boom? The stage is set for national and international economic shifts.

If history is a good forecaster, farm income will improve in 2019 – except in areas of impaired production – and for the next few years, while the overall U.S. economy will tail off. I thought the national economy would deteriorate sooner than it has, but I was wrong, perhaps because the federal tax cuts in 2017 staved off a national recession.

But what do I know? Last weekend Marilyn and I were visiting the next generations near Des Moines. While I was taking a shower early on Saturday morning, my 3-year-old granddaughter entered the bathroom and pulled back the shower curtain.

“I see you,” she called out cheerily.

I responded with, “Are you okay?” She hastily exited the bathroom. I heard her little feet patter hurriedly away from the unexpected spectacle she had observed.

Oh boy. Her behavior told me that what she observed was dismal!

Dr. Mike Rosmann is a psychologist and farmer in western Iowa. The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers may contact him at mike@agbehavioralhealth.com