Very few changes were made to the domestic side the December World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate report which was not a surprise as only demand is updated in the December release. For corn there was a 25 million bu increase to exports that trimmed ending stocks to 2.131 billion bu. This is 769 mbu more than last year and a comfortable stocks to use of 14.7 percent. The USDA held its average cash price projection on corn at $4.85.

No changes were made to domestic soybean balance sheets, holding ending stocks at 245 mbu. This is 23 mbu fewer than at the end of last year and a stocks to use of 5.9 percent. While this is a level where price rationing would be warranted, trade is becoming more comfortable with tight domestic soybean reserves and is not generating a bullish reaction, especially with much larger South American crops than last year. The USDA is projecting an average cash value on soybeans of $12.90.

For wheat the USDA raised its export forecast by 25 mbu which lowered ending stocks to 659 mbu. This is a year-to-year increase of 77 mbu and a stocks to use of 35 percent. The average cash projection on wheat is $7.30, 10 cents better than the November estimate.

Global ending stocks were also little changed from November. The world wheat carryout was projected at 258.2 million metric tons, just under the 258.69 mmt from the November report. Global corn carryover is now estimated at 315.22 mmt, up from the 314.99 mmt last month. The global soybean ending stocks estimate was also little changed at 114.21 mmt compared to 114.51 mmt last month.

The numbers trade was really waiting on were the South American production figures, and these offered little market support. The Argentine production figures were left unchanged from November with 55 mmt on corn and 48 mmt on soybeans. While steady on the month, these are nearly twice the crops that the country grew last year. The USDA left the Brazil corn crop at 129 mmt but did trim the country’s soybean crop to 161 mmt. This was down 2 mmt from November. Even with this cut both crops in Brazil will be record sized this year.

The only surprise in the global production was a 1 mmt increase to the Ukraine corn crop, putting it at 30.5 mmt.

Not many changes took place on the livestock side of balance sheets this month either. Beef production for 2023 was unchanged at 26.93 billion pounds. For 2024 U.S. beef production is expected to increase 180 million pounds and total 25.99 billion pounds. Pork production for 2023 was bumped up 20 million pounds to total 27.24 billion. Pork production for 2024 was left unchanged at 27.73 billion pounds. The average steer value for 2023 is projected at $175.55 per hundredweight and for 2024 it is $178.25 a cwt. On hogs the average value is estimated at $58.70 a cwt for this year and an even $60.00 per cwt for 2024.

Red meat exports were also little changed. Beef exports for 2023 were trimmed 5 million pounds to 3.03 billion pounds, and 2024 exports were unchanged at 2.845 billion pounds. Pork exports for 2023 were bumped up 15 million pounds to total 6.749 billion. Next year’s pork exports are now projected at 6.85 billion pounds, a reduction of 100 million pounds. The burdensome hog supply in China and the loss of that country’s demand is behind the loss in export expectations.

The USDA increased its beef import forecasts for 2023 and 2024 by 10 million pounds each. This now has beef imports at 3.663 billion pounds for 2023 and 3.7 billion pounds for 2024, both of which are record high.

Prior to this data being released, the Brazilian firm CONAB released its crop expectations. CONAB is predicting a Brazilian soybean crop of 160.17 million metric tons, just under last month’s 162.42 mmt estimate. This decline was mostly from a 9.88-million-acre reduction to soybean plantings, which puts acreage at 111.89 million. CONAB is projecting a Brazil corn crop of 118.53 mmt compared to the November estimate for 119.07 mmt. Corn plantings are forecast at 52.06 million, down 136,000 from last month. What is more of a factor for the world market, especially the U.S., is that Brazil is forecast to export record volumes of corn and soybeans in 2024, reducing the U.S. global market share.

China released its November soybean import data, showing the country took in 7.92 mmt of soybeans. This was a 53 percent increase from October and a 7.8 percent growth from November 2022. December soybean imports are forecast to be even higher, with a record 12 mmt being expected. Year to date Chinese soybean imports stand at 89.6 mmt, a 13.3 percent increase on the year. Total soybean imports for the 2023 year are pegged at 98 mmt.

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