DES MOINES, Iowa – The U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs for the fourth quarter of 2023 was 75 million head, up slightly from last December, but down slightly from Sept. 1, 2023, according to the Dec. 1 USDA Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report.

Lee Schulz, Iowa State University associate professor of economics and extension livestock economist, who analyzed the report during a Dec. 22, 2023, webinar with reporters, said the first surprise was the kept-for-breeding category.

According to pre-report estimates, he said this number was down 1.3 percent, compared to a year ago, but it came in at a much larger decline at 3.3 percent – a two-percentage point difference between what analysts expected, and what the report showed.

“Now, I think as we’ve looked at the economic situation that producers have been facing, looked at some of the sow slaughter levels, I think there was a notable possibility or expectation that we were going to see a larger decline year over year in that breeding herd,” he said.

Sponsored by the National Pork Board and the Pork Checkoff in Des Moines, Iowa, the report said the U.S. breeding inventory, at 6 million head, was down 3 percent from last year, and down 3 percent from the previous quarter.

The report said U.S. market hog inventory, at 69 million head, was up slightly from last year, but down slightly from last quarter.

Schulz said these numbers were mostly in line with pre-report expectations, except for the 180-pounds-and-over category, which was much larger.

“For the first three weeks of December (2023), slaughter’s been up 3.8 percent, and so it was fully expected that we’re going to see a larger inventory of 180 pounds and over,” he said. “A lot of those hogs have been slaughtered already.

“Since September (2023), we’ve actually been up 2.2 percent, compared to what the hogs and pigs report had; about 0.6 percent,” he added. “So, when the USDA did go make some of the revisions, some of those were to those slaughter levels to account for the bigger slaughter that we’ve seen since September (2023).”

He said, “The other big surprise here – and maybe it’s not as easy to call it a surprise anymore – is the change in productivity, or pigs saved per litter. When we look at that number, it was 0.8 percentage points higher than the pre-report expectations and record large at 11.66 (average pigs saved per litter).

“That caused a much larger increase in the pig crop, relative to pre-report expectations,” he added. “So, the pig crop was slightly below year-ago levels, but that was driven by the much lower sows farrowed (4 percent lower), but then a much larger-than-expected increase in productivity.”

The report said the September-November 2023 pig crop, at 34.6 million head, was down slightly from 2022. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.97 million head, down 4 percent from 2022. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 48 percent of the breeding herd.

The average pigs saved per litter was 11.66 for the September-November period, compared to 11.22 last year, the fifth consecutive quarter for improved efficiency in U.S. sows, the report said.

Moreover, U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.9 million sows farrow during the December 2023-February 2024 quarter, down two percent from the actual farrowings during the same period one year earlier, and down one percent from the same period two years earlier.

The report said Iowa hog producers had the nation’s largest inventory at 24.9 million head, up one percent from the previous quarter, and up three percent from the previous year. The report added Minnesota had the second largest inventory at 9.1 million head; North Carolina was third, with 7.8 million head.

In Indiana, total hog and pig inventory was estimated at 4.5 million head, up 50,000 head from a year ago. In Illinois, total hog and pig inventory was 5.5 million head, up one percent from Sept. 1, 2023, but unchanged from last year. In Michigan, total hog and pig inventory was estimated at 1.29 million head, up 30,000 head from a year ago. In Ohio, total hog and pig inventory was estimated at 2.6 million head, down 150,000 head from a year ago. (Kentucky and Tennessee numbers weren’t included in the report.)

Schulz said he had one final question as U.S. hog producers go into 2024: “Is this a defining moment for the pork industry? Defining moments are often thought of as moments of truth, but in the throes of it, they’re usually a moment of uncertainty, not clarity. But, maybe now we’re starting to see some things come into focus in the marketplace as we begin to see larger supply adjustments.”