Very few changes were made to the domestic balance sheets in the USDA’s March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Corn ending stocks were left unchanged from February at 2.172 billion bu. Trade was expecting to see this number dip to 2.16 bbu. Soybean ending stocks were also unchanged at 315 million bu and below the average trade guess of 320 mbu. We did see the USDA trim its wheat export estimate by 15 mbu to give us a carryout target of 673 mbu. This was 13 mbu more than trade was expecting.

Even with these minor changes, the USDA still adjusted its cash market outlooks. The average cash corn value for this marketing year is now $4.75 per bushel, a 5-cent cut from February. The average wheat cash value was also trimmed 5 cents from February, putting it at $7.15 a bushel. The soybean estimate was left unchanged at $12.65. Compared to last year, these values are down $1.79 on corn, $1.55 on soybeans, and $1.68 for wheat.

Alterations to the global balance sheets were also minimal. The world corn carryout is now projected at 319.63 million metric tons, compared to the February estimate for 322 mmt and a pre-report trade estimate of 320.4 mmt. The world soybean carryout came in at 114.27 mmt, which was in line with trade guesses and down from the February number of 116 mmt. Global wheat ending stocks are now forecast to total 258.83 mmt, just under the trade estimate for 259.1 mmt and last month’s 259.44 mmt projection.

The most interest heading into this report was on what the USDA would do with South American production, mainly in Brazil. The USDA trimmed Brazil’s soybean crop by 1 mmt from February, putting it at 155 mmt. This was above the average trade estimate for 152.3 mmt. Brazil’s corn crop projection was left unchanged at 124 mmt while trade had been expecting to see it dip to 121.9 mmt. The USDA left its Argentine soybean crop estimate steady at 50 mmt, which was in line with trade expectations. The USDA bumped Argentina’s corn crop up 1 mmt, putting it at 56 mmt. Trade was expecting this to remain unchanged from last month.

The red meat balance sheets were also little changed from last month. U.S. beef production for 2024 is now estimated at 26.33 billion pounds. This is a 140-million-pound increase from February, but a large 640 million fewer pounds than were produced in 2023. Pork production for 2024 is now estimated at 27.91 billion pounds, up 30 million pounds from last month and a sizable 610-million-pound increase from 2023.

No change was made to the U.S. beef export forecast for 2024 this month, holding it at 2.785 billion pounds. This is a 253-million-pound decrease from 2023. Pork exports for the year are forecast at 7.13 billion pounds, a 50-million-pound increase on the month and a 312 million gain on the year. On the import side, the USDA is now predicting beef imports of 4.175 billion pounds this year. This is up 50 million pounds on the month and a large 448 million more than 2023 imports.

The average steer value for 2024 is forecast at $182.50 per hundredweight, up $2.50 on the month and $6.97 more than 2023’s average. Hogs are forecast to average $60.75 a cwt, up $1 from February and a gain of $2.16 on the year.

Global weather patterns have just started to shift from an El Nino to a La Nina influenced trend. Forecasters believe there is a 77 percent chance of a La Nina being in place by this coming October. While this will have limited impact on this year’s production in either North or South America, it may be a factor next year, especially in Argentina.

Argentina suffered heavy production losses in 2022 from a La Nina, and farmers in the country are already starting to prepare for the next one. The most notable is slowing farmer sales as producers are uncertain of crop sizes. A developing La Nina has also caused a reduction in input sales in Argentina. Forecasters warn that while a La Nina event is building it is difficult to determine how strong or long-lasting it will be, and this is what will impact global production. The last La Nina lasted an unprecedented three years.

The February inflation numbers have been released and came in higher than expected. The Consumer Price Index for February came in at 3.2 percent, higher than the 3.1 percent that was forecast, which would have been unchanged from January. Core inflation, which does not include food or energy costs, was 3.8 percent. This was above the 3.7 percent that was expected but below January’s 3.9 percent. Energy costs increased 2.3 percent month to month and food costs held steady. This higher-than-expected inflation now pushes any chance of an interest rate cut back to late summer. Some economists are stepping up to state the Fed Reserve’s target of 2 percent inflation is unobtainable though, and needs to be adjusted for the current market environment.

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