The reaction to the USDA’s lower corn acreage projection for this production season has lost most of its impact on the market. Even with just 90 million acres, the United States will likely see its ending stocks steady from year to year given current demand projections. All the drop in plantings will do is prevent ending stocks from topping 3 billion bu which is what was concerning for the market. The loss of acres, if accurate, just makes the corn complex outlook less negative.

A headline that is getting more attention is the increased reports of plant disease in Argentine corn fields. More cases of Spiroplasma Corn Stunt are being reported, which can have devastating impacts on corn production. In young plants the disease can totally wipe out fields, and even in advanced fields, losses can reach 50 percent of intended production. The ongoing rain events and a reduction to crop protection applications to lower cost of production are being credited for the higher disease cases. This is the primary reason we have seen analysts trim the Argentine corn crop potential in recent sessions.

For the past several years, we have seen a gradual decline in the U.S. share of Chinese trade, and final data from 2023 shows us just how much of a decrease has taken place. One of the greatest shifts in the most recent years has been in China’s corn imports. Ukraine has long been the supplier of any corn China has needed, but the war with Russia has caused a shift to other sources, mainly Brazil. China’s main corn imports for 2023 were split with 48 percent from Brazil, 27 percent from the U.S., and 21 percent from Ukraine. To start 2024, 67 percent of China’s corn has originated from Brazil.

Brazil also remains the main supplier of soybeans to China. Of the soybeans China imported in 2023, 71 percent originated from Brazil. Ever since the trade war between the United States and China, the U.S. share of trade has declined. The U.S. was the main supplier prior to that event, but since then Brazil has accounted for 60-75 percent of the country’s annual needs. 

Chinese customs have released their red meat imports for the start of 2024. China’s January beef imports were up 32.3 percent from 2023 at 300,000 mt. In February, China imported 230,000 mt of beef, a yearly increase of 16.3 percent. January’s pork imports came in at 90,000 mt, a yearly decline of 56.7 percent. February’s pork imports were down 56.5 percent from last year at 70,000 mt. This drop in pork imports was not a surprise given the widespread culling in China due to African swine fever outbreaks. Total red meats imports by China total 1.1 million mt, a 15.2 percent reduction on the year.

This culling in China’s hog herd has also impacted the country’s feed grain consumption. So far in 2024 Chinese feed demand is a reported 44.4 million tons. This is a 3.6 percent decline from a year ago. Feed costs in China are down 7.8 percent from last year though, which is benefiting hog margins.

The official 30- and 90-day NOAA weather outlooks have been released. Above normal temperatures are being forecast for May for the entire eastern half of the U.S. as well as the Southern Plains and Pacific Northwest. Above normal precipitation in May is expected for the Southeastern U.S. into the Upper Plains. The 90-day temperature forecast calls for the entire United States, except the Dakotas, to experience above normal temperatures. For precipitation, the 90-day forecast is calling for above normal rainfall in the Southeast, and below normal rainfall for a swath from Texas through Utah and into the Pacific Northwest.

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