Farm milk production continued to struggle in March and remained below a year ago for the ninth consecutive month, thanks to lower cow numbers and little change in output per cow. The last time milk production was down for this long was from August 2003 to April 2004, according to HighGround Dairy.

The Agriculture Department’s preliminary data showed output at 19.6 billion pounds, down 1.0 percent from March 2023. The top 24-state total, at 18.8 billion pounds, was down 0.9 percent. February output was revised up 90 million pounds, or up 0.5 percent on a daily average basis, from a 1.2 percent decline to just 0.7 percent.

March cow numbers totaled 9.335 million head, down 7,000 from February’s count, which was revised up 12,000 head, but was 98,000 or 1.0 percent below a year ago. The 24-state count, at 8.881 million, was down 7,000 from February. The February count was revised up 10,000 but is 71,000 head below a year ago.

Output per cow in the 50 states averaged 2,100 pounds, unchanged from a year ago. The 24-state average, at 2,115 pounds, was down 3 pounds or 0.1 percent.

First quarter output totaled 56.9 billion pounds, up 0.1 percent from a year ago. Cow numbers averaged 9.33 million, down 16,000 from the October to December quarter, and 85,000 less than first quarter 2023.

StoneX points out that the report laps over poor production in March last year as flooding hit California, where output was down 2.2 percent. Output this year was up 26 million pounds or 0.7 percent from a year ago. Cow numbers were down 1,000 head. Output per cow was up 25 pounds.

Wisconsin was up 27 million pounds or 1.0 percent from a year ago, thanks to a 20-pound-gain per cow and 1,000 additional cows.

Number 3, Idaho, was down 1.3 percent, on a 15-pound drop per cow and 4,000 less cows. Michigan was off 0.3 percent, due to a 30-pound drop per cow, though cow numbers were up 4,000 head. Minnesota was down 1.4 percent on 8,000 fewer cows, though output per cow was up 5 pounds. New York was off 0.2 percent, on a 5-pound drop per cow. Cow numbers were unchanged.

New Mexico again posted the biggest loss, down 15.4 percent from a year ago, due to a drop of 41,000 cows and 20 pounds less per cow. Texas was down 5.1 percent on 18,000 fewer cows and a 55-pound drop per cow. Some of those state’s losses may be attributed to the avian-bovine influenza outbreak.

Oregon was down 9.2 percent, on 10,000 fewer cows and a 25-pound drop per cow. Pennsylvania was off 0.1 percent on 1,000 fewer cows, while output per cow was unchanged.

South Dakota posted the biggest gain, up 11.2 percent, thanks to 21,000 more cows and a 5-pound gain per cow. Vermont was down 2.3 percent, on 2,000 fewer cows and a 15-pound drop per cow. Washington State was down 0.7 percent on 2,000 fewer cows, though output per cow was unchanged.

StoneX reported that protein in milk pooled in federal orders softened in February but recovered some for March. Combined fat plus protein was up 1.6 percent from last year. But lower culling and shrinking herd is reflective of a lack of heifer replacements, StoneX warned.

Checking the rearview mirror; U.S. milk production decreased slightly in 2023 to 226 billion pounds, according to the USDA’s “Milk Production, Disposition, and Income Summary.” Production per cow averaged 24,117 pounds, up 30 pounds from 2022. Cow numbers averaged 9.39 million head, down 14,000 from 2022.

Milk marketings totaled $45.9 billion, down 19.8 percent from 2022. Producer returns averaged $20.38 per hundredweight, 19.7 percent below 2022. Marketings totaled 225.4 billion pounds, down slightly from 2022.

Dairy cows moving across state lines must now be tested for bird flu as per USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) mandate. The agency found that the same HPAI H5N1 virus genotype that has impacted dairy cows is also affecting poultry flocks. The agency says the disease can spread cattle-to-cattle, as evidenced by transmission via movement between herds. The virus also spreads from dairy cattle premises back into nearby poultry premises.

The media has reported that the influenza had been detected in pasteurized milk purchased at stores, but there’s more to the story. A press release from National Milk states: “The Food and Drug Administration confirmed again that pasteurization of milk consistent with the Grade ‘A’ Pasteurized Milk Ordinance (PMO) destroys harmful pathogenic bacteria and other microorganisms, including Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and other viruses. The data cited by FDA is consistent with many other studies demonstrating that the legally required temperature and time for milk pasteurization will readily inactivate HPAI. Viral fragments detected after pasteurization are nothing more than evidence that the virus is dead; they have zero impact on human health. Further, the PMO prohibits milk from sick cows from entering the food supply.”

The latest Livestock Slaughter report showed an estimated 244,600 head were sent to slaughter under federal inspection in March, down 8,100 from February, and 61,600 head or 20.1 percent below March 2023.

Dairy cow slaughter for the week ending April 13 totaled 55,100 head, down 2,300 from the previous week, and 5,200 or 8.6 percent below a year ago. Year to date, 860,300 head have been culled, down 134,100 or 13.5 percent from a year ago.

The 2023 “Livestock Slaughter Summary” showed 3.08 million dairy cows were slaughtered in 2023, up from 3.05 million in 2022. The highest monthly total, 306,200 head, was in March. The lowest was 224,700 in December.

The USDA’s latest Crop Progress report shows 12 percent of the U.S. corn crop had been planted, as of the week ending April 21, dead even with a year ago but 2 percent ahead of the five-year average. Eight percent of the soybeans were in the ground, also mirroring a year ago, and 4 percent ahead of the five-year average.

Butter inventories continue to climb and hit 316.6 million pounds on March 31, according to the latest Cold Storage report. Stocks were up 18.9 million pounds or 6.4 percent from February’s count, which was revised up 1.9 million pounds, and were 7.1 million pounds or 2.3 percent above those in March 2023.

American type cheese stocks fell to 825.6 million pounds, down 4.9 million or 0.6 percent from the February level which was revised down 2.3 million pounds, and were down 1.2 million pounds or 0.1 percent from a year ago.

The “other” cheese category holdings hit 610.8 million pounds, up 5 million or 0.1 percent from February’s count, which was revised 2.4 million pounds lower. Stocks were down 1.2 million pounds or 0.2 percent from a year ago.

Cash butter started the Earth Day week hitting $3 per pound Monday, a price not seen since Nov. 6, 2023, but finished Friday at $2.97, up a nickel on the week and 61.75 cents above a year ago.

Midwest butter stocks are widely available, according to Dairy Market News, despite reported concerns about mid-to longer-term cream availability and summer just months away.