The May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate report contained some surprises for the market.

US corn balance sheets for the 2023/24 marketing year saw a 100 million bu decrease from April due to a 50 mbu increase in exports and a 50 mbu increase to ethanol demand. This put the U.S. carryout at 2.02 billion bu. This is a stocks to use of 13.7 percent and indicates a cash value of $4.65.

The initial production data for the 2024/25 corn crop put the average U.S. yield at 181 bushels per acre and crop size at 14.86 bbu. The USDA used the March planting intentions acreage of 90 million, which was not surprising. This will give the U.S. a 482 mbu smaller corn crop, but total corn supply will still increase 180 mbu to start the year from last year due to the large 23/24 carryout. New crop corn demand is projected at 14.8 bbu to give the U.S. a new crop carryout estimate of 2.1 bbu. This is a 14.2 percent stocks to use and indicates an average cash value of $4.40.

On the soybean side, no changes were made to 2023/24 domestic balance sheets, leaving carryout at 340 mbu and stocks to use at 8.3 percent. This will keep the average cash value estimate at $12.55.

The first look at new crop balance sheets gave us an average yield estimate of 52 bushels per acre and a 4.45 bbu crop. The total U.S, soybean supply to start the next marketing year is pegged at 4.8 bbu, 351 mbu more than at the start of this year. New crop soybean usage is expected to increase 246 mbu from old crop, but even so, our ending stocks forecast for 2024/25 is at a large 445 mbu. This takes our stocks to use up to 10.2 percent and the average cash value to $11.20.

The next-to-last domestic balance sheet update on old crop wheat increased our exports by 10 mbu to put carryout at 688 mbu. This is a comfortable stocks to use of 37.5 percent and indicates an average cash value of $7.10.

A sizable increase is expected from this year to the next in domestic wheat reserves. Total U.S. wheat production is forecast at 1.858 bbu next year. This comes from an average yield estimate of 48.9 bushels per acre and 47.5 million planted acres. The total wheat supply to start the year is pegged at 2.665 bbu, 144 mbu more than this year. Total consumption is estimated at 1.9 bbu to give us a carryover of 766 mbu, a 79 mbu increase from this year. This takes the stocks to use on wheat to 40.3 percent and the average cash value to $6 per bushel.

Old crop ending stocks on the global side had some sizable changes take place. The world corn carryout for this year is now estimated at 313.08 million metric tons compared to 318.28 mmt in April. The world soybean carryout is forecast at 111.78 mmt, down from April’s 114.2 mmt.

The first look at the 2024/25 world balance sheets also had surprises for trade. The initial new crop corn carryout was pegged at 312.27 mmt with trade expecting 319 mmt. The first look at the soybean number showed us a carryout of 128.5, well above the average guess for 119.3 mmt. Next year’s world wheat carryout is estimated at 253.6 mmt, with trade expecting 257.2 mmt.

Red meat balance sheets for 2024 were little changed from April this month. U.S. beef production for the year is now pegged at 26.59 billion pounds, up 140 million from last month. Pork production for the year was lowered 30 million pounds to total 28.06 billion pounds. Average values are estimated at $183.5 per hundredweight on steers this year and $62.49 per cwt on hogs.

The initial red meat production numbers for 2025 were also released this month. Beef production for 2025 is estimated at 25.12 billion pounds, and pork production is projected at 28.4 billion pounds. Average value estimates for 2025 are $188.25 per cwt on cattle and $60.00 a cwt on hogs.

Beef exports for 2024 are now estimated at 2.8 billion pounds, 13 million more than in April. Pork exports for the year are forecast at 7.26 billion pounds, a large 78 million pounds decline from last month. The initial 2025 export forecast is for 2.5 billion pounds of beef and 7.61 billion pounds of pork.

Beef imports for this year are now estimated at 4.17 billion pounds, a 5-million-pound decline from April. The 2025 beef import projection is for 4.22 billion pounds.

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