No changes were made to the domestic side of the USDA’s corn balance sheets this month.This left ending stocks at 2.02 billion bu for old crop, and 2.1 bbu for new crop. The average cash outlook for the 2024/25 marketing year was also left unchanged at $4.40 per bushel.

More changes took place to the world balance sheets, but these were minimal in size as well. The 2023/24 world carryout estimate was trimmed to 312.4 million metric tons, down from May’s 313 mmt estimate. The 2024/25 ending stocks estimate is now at 310.77 mmt from May’s 253.61 mmt. Neither of these changes are enough to warrant a shift in the corn market outlooks.

The only change to domestic soybean balance sheets was a 10 million bu reduction to crush for the 2023/24 marketing year. This raised old crop carryout and new crop carryin an equal amount. Ending stocks are now projected at 350 mbu for this marketing year and 455 mbu for next year. Even with this increase, the average new crop cash value estimate was left unchanged at $11.20 per bushel.

World soybean ending stocks were also little changed on the month. Old crop ending stocks are estimated at 111 mmt and new crop at 127.9 mmt.

The USDA’s revised 2024/25 U.S. wheat crop estimate came in at 1.875 bbu this month. This was up 17 mbu from last month, but just under the average trade estimate. The USDA also bumped new crop exports to 800 mbu, up 25 mbu from May. New crop ending stocks are now estimated at 758 mbu, down 8 mbu from May. This is still an increase of 71 mbu from the final 2023/24 carryout estimate of 688 mbu. Even with this increase, the USDA raised its average cash outlook to $6.50 per bushel, up 50 cents on the month.

We did see some changes to the world balance sheets on wheat. Old crop ending stocks were raised from 257.8 mmt in May to 259.56 mmt this month. Even with this increase, the 2024/25 ending stocks estimate declined to 252.27 mmt from May’s 253.6 mmt. A 5 mmt reduction to the Russian wheat crop kept the world inventory from increasing.

The only change in South American production this month was a 1 mmt reduction to the Brazilian soybean crop. 

Changes to the red meat balance sheets were minimal this month as well. Beef production for 2024 was left unchanged at 26.59 billion pounds. The 2025 beef production forecast was raised by 250 million pounds to 25.37 billion pounds. Pork production increased a slim 40 million pounds for 2024 to 28.1 billion pounds. Pork production for 2025 was held at 28.4 billion pounds.

Beef export forecasts were left unchanged this month, with 2.818 billion pounds for 2024 and 2.5 billion pounds for 2025. Beef imports were also left unchanged, with 4.17 billion pounds this year and 4.23 billion pounds next year. Pork exports are forecast at 7.36 billion pounds for 2024 and 7.62 billion pounds for 2025.

The average steer value for 2024 is now at $184.01 per hundredweight, and $188.50 per cwt for 2025. Hog values are expected to average $61.24 cwt for 2024 and $60.00 cwt for 2025.

The May inflation data was better than expected and has drawn managed money interest into the equity market with both the S&P and the NASDAQ posting record highs in response. The May Consumer Price Index number showed consumer prices, which is the number attached to the U.S. inflation rate, were up 3.3 percent from last year. This number was below the 3.4 percent reading from April, which was expected to be repeated this month.

Core inflation, which excludes energy and food costs, was 3.4 percent higher than last year. Trade was expecting to see a reading of 3.5 percent and the previous reading was 3.6 percent. Energy costs for the month were down 2 percent while food costs increased 0.6 percent. While inflation did decline more than expected, it remains above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2 percent.

China has upped its soybean import interest lately which is not surprising. The second corn crop harvest in Brazil is advancing, and the export of this crop is taking priority over soybean loadings right now. Many terminals in Brazil can only load one commodity at a time, and corn is taking preference at this time. The purchases we have seen from China has been relatively small, indicating they are just to fill gaps between purchases they already have on the books. As the United States become more of a residual soybean supplier, we will likely see this type of importer buying continue.

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is collected from a variety of sources and is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor is it intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.