It is not uncommon to see elevated attention on U.S. weather conditions during the growing season, but this year we are seeing just as much weather interest from the global perspective. The Black Sea has been dry, causing crop loss in both Russia and Ukraine. This is on top of the losses in Russia from frost. Sources in Russia claim any crop impacted by frost has been reseeded, but this does not prevent drought losses, and production loss is still expected.

We are now seeing more weather focus on China where extreme heat has impacted corn plantings. China’s eastern corn production regions are reporting that farmers are willing to wait to seed their corn crops until temperatures break and rains return. This is mostly on non-irrigated fields, but even areas with irrigation are seeing heat stress. The concern is that this area represents 35 percent of China’s corn production.

The NOAA weather outlook for the next 30 and 90 days indicates heat will continue for much of the U.S. For the next 30 days, almost the entire United States is expected to see above to much above normal temperatures. Precipitations for this period is expected to be below normal for the eastern half of the U.S., and extend into the Ohio Valley.

The 90-day outlook models call for the above normal heat to last through the end of September. Better rain chances are expected for the eastern half of the U.S. over this period. The uncertainty in the market is what impact these conditions will have on U.S. crop production, especially if they impact late season development.

While it has not been in the headlines recently, the La Nina weather pattern continues to build. The Climate Prediction Center remains in an official “La Nina watch” but states that current indicators are neutral. The CPC claims there is a 65 percent chance of the pattern being in place between July and September and lasting through the winter months. This weather shift may have little if any impact on U.S. production this year, but could be a factor for South American crops, mainly Argentina.

The trade tensions between China and the European Union are starting to gain more attention. Authorities in China had announced it would be launching an investigation into anti-dumping charges against the EU on their pork exports. The immediate reaction was that China would halt EU pork imports and the U.S. would benefit. Chinese officials are quick to clarify that the investigation is just getting underway, and it will take at least a year to conclude. EU officials believe the allegations have nothing to do with pork values, and what China is doing is more of a retaliation against EU tariffs that were placed on cheap electric vehicles out of China.

The real reason behind the Chinese trade issues with EU may be that China simply is overbooked on pork needs. China continues to cull its domestic hog herd to make it more profitable. This comes at the same time China is seeing contraction in its dairy herd, further increasing the country’s red meat supply. China’s year-to-date pork imports have dropped 47 percent from last year in response to this elevated domestic supply.

Lower consumer demand in China has also decreased the need for pork imports, along with a shift to higher beef-based diets. China’s year-to-date beef imports are up 23.6 percent from last year, with most of this sourced from the United States.

The Brazilian crush firm Abiove has updated its soybean balance sheets for the country. Abiove now has the 2024 soybean crop at 152.5 million metric tons, down from its previous estimate for 153.9 mmt. Last week the USDA pegged Brazil’s soybean crop at 153 mmt. Abiove left its soybean export forecast for 2024 unchanged at 97.8 mmt, as it did for crush at 54.5 mmt. Brazil’s soybean carryout for 2024 is now forecast at 4.1 mmt compared to the previous 5.3 mmt estimate.

China has released its import data for the calendar year through May. The United States has shipped China 1.16 mmt of corn over this period representing an 11.5 percent Chinese market share. Brazil is the largest supplier to China on corn with a 57 percent market share. The U.S. has shipped China 10.85 mmt of soybeans this year for a 29 percent market share. Brazil also leads China’s soybean imports with a 66 percent market share. China has imported 1.06 mmt of wheat for the year which is a 13.2 percent share of needs. Australia is China’s top wheat supplier with a 36 percent market share.

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