SPRING HILL, Tenn. – In the wake of the USDA’s decision to ax the July 1 USDA Cattle Inventory Report, agricultural economists have been analyzing July cattle numbers, using alternative means of data gathering to calculate their estimates.

In April, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service announced, due to budget cuts, it was discontinuing the July 1 USDA Cattle Inventory Report, which is only one of two cattle inventory reports normally released every year in January and July.

“I cannot begin to speculate why they cut the report,” Andrew P. Griffith, University of Tennessee agricultural and resource economist, told Farm World. “This is not the first time they failed to publish this report, and it will probably not be the last.

“The report is fairly important in that it gives us a glimpse of beef cows for replacement, and the size of the calf crop,” he added. “Oddly enough, this information is used by market participants, and helps guide the price of cattle, based on the supply side.”

He said, “One year of missed data will not send huge shock waves through the market, but failure to re-institute the report will have longer lasting impacts as the data becomes thinner.”

Scott Brown, University of Missouri associate extension professor of agricultural economics, said in his own analysis, under more normal times, the cattle industry would be strongly debating what the July report would say about the inventory of beef cows and cattle, but not this year.

“Because of budgetary issues at the USDA, there is no report this year,” he said. “Still, it is critical for the industry to have as much information as possible to detect any signs of early herd rebuilding after the declines experienced in the past five years because of drought and high input costs.

“For now, the best strategy is to look to other sources of data to get an estimate of the possible size of the July beef cow inventory,” he added.

Based on available data, he said the July 2024 beef cow inventory is projected to be 1.8 percent below the July 2023 level, consistent with the reported 2.5 percent decline in January.

Without the July 1 USDA Cattle Inventory Report, he said the industry must rely on these alternative data sources:

- Beef cow slaughter: This can offer insights into inventory trends, he said. From January through May, beef cow slaughter is 13.1 percent lower than the same period in 2023, suggesting that cow-calf producers may be retaining cows longer.

- Heifers on feed: Another useful metric is the percentage of heifers in the total cattle inventory on feed in 1,000-plus-capacity feedyards, he said. On April 1, 38.5 percent of the cattle on feed were heifers.

- Historical analysis: This shows the percentage of January-through-June beef cow slaughter, relative to how January beef cow inventory correlates with changes in July beef cow inventory, he added.

He said analysts will have to rely on this other kind of data for July that show “beef cattle producers are retaining cows and rebuilding the herd. However, weather and markets may create a shift in mentality.”

Griffith said, “I agree with Scott. However, I am not sure we would have seen a shift in mentality in the report, relative to what may happen if certain parts of cattle-producing areas do not receive some moisture sooner rather than later.”

He said the only data to use now is the quantity of heifers on feed, heifer slaughter rates, and cow slaughter rates to determine heifer retention.

“Given this information, most producers will not start making heifer retention decisions until this fall when the spring calf crop is weaned,” he said. “Thus, this particular July 1 report was probably not going to shed as much light on heifer retention and herd rebuilding as many people would like to have seen.

“We are certainly seeing a slowdown in cow slaughter, heifer slaughter and the quantity of heifers on feed,” he added. “Thus, it would appear there are some folks thinking about trying to keep more breeding females. It is difficult to put a number on it at this time, given that we have just now started to wrap up the slaughter of all the heifers that were pushed into the feedlot during last year’s drought.”

When asked how the absence of the July 1 USDA Cattle Inventory Report will affect the grain markets, as well as the cattle markets, he said, “I do not think there is a clear answer here. The grain markets will be impacted from a supply standpoint, and the report itself is unlikely to impact grain markets much.”

He said grain markets will be influenced by actual grain production and demand, due to reduced forage supply if drought persists.

“The poultry and hog producers will help clear grain supplies if its grain is cheap,” he said. “Cattle markets will simply be operating on less information without the report. I would hate to say it will contribute to more volatility because this market is volatile, regardless of the information flow right now.”

When asked what his outlook is for July cattle numbers, based on available data, and how the absence of the July 1 USDA Cattle Inventory Report will ultimately affect producers, he said, “I will not provide a number, but directionally, there are probably fewer animals in the mix than a year ago. This includes fewer cows, fewer heifers held as beef replacement, and a smaller calf crop.”

Brown said, “Beef cow slaughter and the level of heifers on feed will continue to provide additional information for the remainder of this year about the future beef cow inventory, which can help producers make better decisions on their operations.”