The final 2023/24 marketing year balance sheet update for corn gave us a 55 million bu reduction to ending stocks, taking them to 1.812 billion bu. This was from a 15 mbu increase to ethanol use and 40 mbu more exports. The corn yield for this marketing year was bumped up one-half a bushel, putting the national average at 183.6 bushels per acre. This is expected to give us a crop of 15.18 bbu. Demand for this marketing year was left unchanged this month, giving us a carryout projection of 2.057 bbu, 16 mbu less than the August estimate. This is a 13.7 percent stocks to use and equates to an average cash value of $4.10 per bushel.

On the soybean side, the only change to old crop demand was a 5 mbu increase in crush. This took ending stocks to 340 mbu. Very few changes were made to the new crop balance sheets either. The USDA left the projected soybean yield at 53.2 bpa and crop size at 4.59 bbu. Seed demand increased 2 mbu for the 2024/25 marketing year, leaving carryout at 550 mbu, 10 mbu less than in August and 35 mbu less than trade was expecting. The new crop stocks to use is now 12.5 percent, indicating a cash value of $10.80.

As is usually the case, no changes were made to the domestic wheat balance sheets this month, holding ending stocks at 828 mbu. This is a 42.2 percent stocks-to-use ratio and points to an average cash price of $5.70.

The 2024/25 world balance sheets contained a few more alterations to numbers. The world corn carryout for this marketing year is now estimated at 308.35 million metric tons, down from the 310.17 mmt estimate in August. The world soybean carryout is estimated at 134.58 mmt, just above the 134.3 mmt from last month. For wheat, the world ending stocks are now projected at 257.22 mmt, up from the 256.62 mmt last month.

The USDA increased beef production forecasts in the monthly balance sheet update. For 2024, the USDA is predicting production of 26.8 billion pounds, a 60 million pound increase from August. For 2025, beef production is forecast at 25.63 billion pounds, up 180 million from last month. Pork production was left unchanged for 2024 at 28.05 billion pounds, and trimmed 50 million pounds for 2025 to 28.51 billion pounds.

The USDA is expecting higher exports for both beef and pork moving forward. For 2024, the U.S. has beef exports at 2.99 billion pounds, up 50 million pounds from last month. Next year’s beef exports are forecast at 2.6 billion pounds, an increase of 100 million. Pork exports for 2024 are estimated to total 7.18 billion pounds, up 60 million from a month ago. The 2025 pork export forecast was left at 7.37 billion pounds.

The average steer value for 2024 is projected at $185.11 per hundredweight, and for 2025 it is $186.25 per cwt. On hogs the average value is $59.38 for this year and $57.50 for next year.

Ahead of this data, the Brazilian firm CONAB released its final balance sheet update for its 2023/24 marketing year. CONAB put the 2023/24 soybean crop at 147.38 mmt. Soybean exports for the year totaled 92.43 mmt and ending stocks were 3.09 mmt, all unchanged from the firm’s previous estimate. Corn production was up slightly at 115.72 mmt. Corn exports were held at 36 mmt, but carryout bumped up to 5.05 mmt. The Brazilian wheat crop was unchanged from last month at 8.8 mmt. Brazil wheat imports were pegged at 6 mmt for the year and ending stocks were trimmed 100,000 mt to 1.42 mmt. 

The Brazilian crush firm Abiove also updated its soybean balance sheets. Abiove is more optimistic than CONAB and put the soybean crop at 153 mmt. Abiove also has Brazilian exports at 97.8 mmt and crush at 54.5 mmt. The group raised its soybean import projection for this year to 930,000 mt, an increase of 130,000 mt. These imports were needed to replace the loss in soybeans to Argentina from the year before. This is the largest Brazilian soybean import total in 20 years. 

In the September WASDE report, the USDA projected the 2023/24 Brazil crops at 153 mmt and the corn crop at 122 mmt. For 2024/25, the USDA has production at 169 mmt for soybeans and 127 mmt on corn. Argentine 2023/24 crops were estimated at 48.1 mmt for soybeans and 50 mmt for corn. For next year the Argentine crop estimates are 51 mmt on soybeans and corn both.

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is collected from a variety of sources and is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor is it intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.