DES MOINES, Iowa – There were 76.5 million hogs and pigs on U.S. farms last month, up slightly from September 2023, and up 2 percent from June 1, according to the Sept. 1 USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report.

Lee Schulz, Iowa State University professor of agricultural economics, said productivity gains have been highlighted in the last several quarterly hogs and pigs reports.

“We are at historically high productivity levels,” he said. “If you look at pigs saved per litter levels, I would argue the industry is continuing on this new trajectory (path) of larger year-over-year increases. This is after litter rate growth was relatively stagnant from 2020 through 2022.”

Schulz joined Brett Stuart, Global AgriTrends president and co-founder in Preston, Idaho, and Dan Newman, National Pork Board senior vice president of market growth, in analyzing the report in a Sept. 26 webinar with reporters.

Sponsored by the National Pork Board and the Pork Checkoff in Des Moines, the report said U.S. breeding inventory, at 6.04 million head, was down 2 percent from last year, but up 1 percent from the previous quarter.

The report said U.S. market hog inventory, at 70.4 million head, was up 1 percent from last year, and up 2 percent from last quarter.

Schulz said the report showed increases in some of the higher weight classes for market hogs: “I think it’s important to keep in mind as we’re seeing cheaper feed costs, that could have implications for continuing those higher weights. And we may see some adjustments when we think about market timing as we go forward.”

The report said the June-August 2024 pig crop, at 35 million head, was down 1 percent from 2023. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.99 million head, down 2 percent from 2023. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.72 for the June-August period, compared to 11.61 last year.

Schulz said what surprised him was the 180-pound-and-over weight category: “If you look at the current slaughter data that we have, we have one official week in September, and then two of the estimated weeks in September, hog slaughter has been up on average 1.1 percent.

“So, we would have to see some very large hog slaughter levels for the next roughly six weeks here to realize what that 180-pound-and-over category is for the USDA,” he added. “For me, that is a surprise, that 180-pounds-and-over, given where current slaughter levels are at.”

The USDA said Iowa hog producers had the nation’s largest inventory, at 25.5 million head, with inventory up 3 percent from the previous quarter (June 1), and up 2 percent from Sept. 1, 2023. Minnesota had the second largest inventory, at 9.4 million head; and North Carolina was third, with 8.2 million head.

In Indiana, total hog and pig inventory was estimated at 4.5 million head, down 100,000 head from a year ago. Breeding hog inventory, at 250,000 head, was down 7 percent from last September. Market hog inventory, at 4.25 million head, was down 2 percent from last year. The average pigs saved per litter for the June to August quarter was 12.00, compared to 11.50 from the same period last year.

In Illinois, total hog and pig inventory was 5.6 million head, down 3 percent from June 1, but up 2 percent from last year. Breeding inventory, at 650,000 head, was down 10,000 from the previous quarter, and down 20,000 from last year. Market hog inventory, at 4.95 million head, was down 3 percent from last quarter, but up 2 percent from last year.

In Michigan, total hog and pig inventory was estimated at 1.17 million head, down 110,000 head from a year ago. Breeding hog inventory, at 110,000 head, was down 4 percent from last September. Market hog inventory, at 1.06 million head, was down 9 percent from last year. The average pigs saved per litter for the June to August quarter was 11.20, compared to 11.10 from the same period last year.

In Ohio, total hog and pig inventory was estimated at 2.55 million head, down 150,000 head from a year ago. Breeding hog inventory, at 190,000 head, was down 5 percent from last September. Market hog inventory, at 2.36 million head, was down 6 percent from last year. The average pigs saved per litter for the June to August quarter was 11.10, compared to 11.50 from the same period last year. (Kentucky and Tennessee numbers were not included in the report).

The report said United States hog producers intend to have 2.96 million sows farrow during the September-November 2024 quarter, down slightly from the actual farrowings during the same period one year earlier, and down 4 percent from the same period two years earlier.

Moreover, the report said intended farrowings for December 2024-February 2025, at 2.93 million sows, are up slightly from the same period one year earlier, but down 1 percent from the same period two years earlier.

Stuart said, “Farrowing intentions, whether or not they actually come to pass, suggest no real further liquidation as we look out through winter.”

Schulz said, currently, some producers are seeing profitability: “There is a lot of risk in today’s environment. But the market is offering some opportunity with profitable futures prices in the near-term, as well as at times next year.”