The USDA bumped its average U.S. corn yield estimate to 183.8 bushels per acre in the October supply and demand report, just above the 183.6 bpa in September. This was enough to raise the U.S. crop to 15.2 billion bu, an 18 million bu increase from last month. The total projected corn supply was cut 34 mbu though, as the smaller Sept. 1 stocks data was incorporated into balance sheets. The only change to corn demand was a 25 mbu increase in exports. These changes led to a 59 mbu reduction for the U.S. carryout, putting it at 1.999 bbu, nearly equal to trade expectations. This is a 13.3 percent stocks to use ratio and equates to an average cash value of $4.10 per bushel.

Even fewer changes took place to the U.S. soybean balance sheets this month. The U.S. yield was fractionally lower at 53.1 bpa which is expected to generate a crop of 4.58 bbu, 4 mbu fewer than the September estimate. The net decrease to stocks was just 2 mbu though, as the September stocks data added in 2 mbu to the supply. The only change in soybean demand was a 2 mbu reduction in seed usage. The U.S. soybean carryout was left unchanged by the USDA at 550 mbu and was equal to trade guesses. This is a 12.5 percent stocks to use ratio and suggests futures of $10.80.

More alterations were noted to the U.S. wheat balance sheets this month. Total U.S. wheat production was lowered 10 mbu this month, reflecting the reduction to the crop size in the September small grains report. Beginning stocks were also trimmed 6 mbu from the quarterly stocks data. The USDA bumped wheat imports by 10 mbu though, to give us a total wheat supply of 2.78 bbu. On the demand side the only change was a 10 mbu reduction on feed usage. The end result is a wheat carryout of 812 mbu, 16 mbu less than the September figure, and 7 mbu below the average trade estimate.

It is worth noting that the data collected for this report was prior to Oct. 1. For corn and soybeans, trade is noting that stress from August and September drought had not shown up in fields yet. Since then, crop reports have started to indicate not only a reduction in yield, but also to crop quality. The greatest concern is how dry this year’s crops are coming out of the field, and how it is causing excessive damage to crops. The greatest concern is on soybeans where low moisture is leading to shatter and grinding when combined.

No changes were made to Argentine nor Brazilian corn or soybean production this month. Brazil’s crops remain at 169 million metric tons for soybeans and 127 mmt for corn. Argentine crops are holding at 51 mmt for both corn and soybeans. Several analysts have started to lower their Argentine crop estimates though, with some 4 mmt under the USDA.

The USDA also left the Argentine wheat crop estimate at 18 mmt this month, even though we are picking up reports of abandonment due to drought. Farmers in Argentina have also reportedly halted corn planting until rains return. This has several analysts leaning toward lower Argentine grain production figures as we move forward.

Few changes took place to the world balance sheets this month, either. The world corn carryout is now forecast at 306.52 mmt compared to 308.35 mmt last month. The world soybean carryout is forecast at 134.65 mmt, also nearly unchanged from last month’s 134.58 mmt. Global wheat ending stocks increased slightly from last month, going from 257.2 mmt to 257.7 mmt.

The U.S. beef production estimate for 2024 increased 210 million pounds this month, coming in at 27 billion pounds. For 2025, U.S. beef production increased 300 million pounds, ending up at 25.93 billion pounds. These increases are the result of a building U.S. cattle inventory, but also from heavier carcass weights as cheaper feed grains are allowing animals to be held longer.

Pork production numbers were mixed. For 2024, the U.S. pork production forecast was lowered 110 million pounds, coming in at 27.95 billion pounds. A slight 10-million-pound increase was seen for 2025 at 28.52 billion pounds.

Beef and pork demand outlooks were also mixed this month. Beef exports were cut 350 million pounds for 2024 to 2.95 billion pounds and left unchanged for 2025 at 2.6 billion pounds. Beef imports were bumped up 550 million pounds for 2024 and 900 million pounds for 2025 as retailers struggle to find enough select grade cattle to satisfy demand. This put beef imports at 4.38 billion pounds for this year and 4.42 billion pounds for next year. Pork exports were cut 300 million pounds for 2024 to 7.15 billion pounds but increased 300 million pounds for 2025 to 7.4 billion pounds.

The average steer value for 2025 was bumped up 25 cents to $186.50 per hundredweight, and hogs are projected to average $58 per hundredweight, up 50 cents from last month.

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