INDIANAPOLIS – The record high soybean crop projected for Indiana and the U.S. will be reflected in the lower price farmers get for their beans, according to the Indiana Farm Bureau’s (INFB) chief economist.

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has estimated the state’s soybean crop at 346.8 million bushels, with an average yield of 60 bushels per acre. Last year, the state produced 334.3 million bushels, with an average yield of 61.

Nationwide, NASS has forecast a soybean crop of 4.58 billion bushels, up from last year’s 4.2 billion. Yields are expected to average 53.1, up from 50.6 in 2023. NASS released it latest crop production report Oct. 11.

If the agency’s estimates are realized, Illinois (720 million bushels), Iowa (638 million) and Michigan (113 million) are among the states that would also see record high soybean production.

The USDA expects stocks of soybeans and corn to increase to the largest inventories relative to projected use since 2019, the INFB’s Dr. Todd D. Davis said.

“The increase in stocks will be a headwind on price potential,” he said in a release. “USDA projects the 2024 U.S. corn price at $4.10 per bushel and the soybean price at $10.80 per bushel. If realized, the 2024 average corn and soybean prices will be $2.44 and $3.40 per bushel, respectively, lower than the average price received in 2022.”

NASS has estimated record high average corn yields nationally at 183.8 bushels per acre. The U.S. corn crop is projected to be 15.2 billion bushels. If realized, this year’s corn crop would be the second largest on record, Davis noted.

“Profit margins continue to be squeezed, and farmers may need to use working capital or increase operating debt to meet liquidity problems,” he said. “As farmers update their crop enterprise and cash flow budgets, it may be an excellent opportunity to talk with your lender about your profitability expectations for 2024 and your plans for managing any cash flow problems. If you typically combine your household finances with the farm business finances, including family members in this conversation may be beneficial.”

Nathanial Warenski, Indiana state statistician for NASS, said the corn and soybean crops have been ahead of average in their progress all season long.

“Soybeans are close to a record high yield, but there are many factors in achieving good yields,” he told Farm World. “I have heard the later planted fields are not doing as well.”

Higher acreage numbers are a factor in the record production, Warenski noted. Soybean harvested acres are estimated to be 86.3 million nationwide, up 5 percent from last year, NASS said. In Indiana, the agency projected nearly 5.8 million harvested acres, up from almost 5.5 million in 2023.

“We used to update our average estimates in our October crop production forecast,” he explained. “Last year, the administrative data was good enough to adjust it (in) September, and in August this year. Nonetheless, the planted and harvested acreage of soybeans are up from the previous year. Higher acreage leads to higher production. Nationally, acreage is high and yields are projected to be a record. We are looking at a record production nationally as well.”