The USDA unexpectedly lowered its average U.S. corn and soybean predictions this month and held demand mostly steady.

This USDA trimmed the U.S. corn yield in the November balance sheet, taking it to 183.1 bushels per acre for the national average. This lowered the national crop size by 61 million bu to a total of 15.14 billion bu. No changes were made to projected corn demand despite U.S. export sales being 400 mbu ahead of last year’s pace and above the projected pace to meet current estimates.

This adjustment to production still lowered corn ending stocks to 1.938 billion bu, which was slightly less than the average trade guess. This is a 12.9 percent stocks to use and indicates an average cash value of $4.10 per bushel.

More adjustments were made to U.S. soybean balance sheets this month, starting with yield. The average U.S. soybean yield was trimmed 1.4 bpa to a revised 51.7 bpa. This took 121 mbu off the production forecast, lowering it to 4.46 bbu. The USDA cut domestic usage by 15 mbu for crush and 1 mbu for seed, and reduced its export forecast by 25 mbu. These adjustments were the result of lower production.

The net result of these was an 80 mbu cut to projected carryout, taking it down to 470 mbu. While still a large inventory, this was much lower than trade was expecting. The stocks to use on soybeans is now 10.8 percent and indicates an average cash value of $10.80. The stocks to use on soybeans is creeping closer to a rationing level, and any additional yield loss will likely put us there.

No changes were made to the U.S. wheat production data this month. This held the national average yield at 51.2 bpa and the crop at 1.97 bbu. Minimal changes were made to wheat demand, with imports bumping up 5 mbu and food use raised 2 mbu.

This raised the U.S. wheat ending stock forecast a slim 3 mbu, putting it just above the average trade guess at 815 mbu. This is a 41.3 percent stocks to use and indicates an average cash value of $5.60 per bushel.

Only minimal changes were made to the global balance sheets this month as well. The world corn carryout is now forecast at 304.14 million metric tons, 2.4 mmt less than the October estimate. Global soybean ending stocks are now forecast at 131.74 mmt, 3 mmt less than last month. The world wheat ending stocks estimate was left nearly unchanged at 257.57 mmt. These world balance sheet adjustments were the main result of changes to U.S. numbers.

Red meat balance sheets contained more changes to numbers than usual this month. U.S. beef production for 2024 is now forecast at 27.03 billion pounds, 20 million more than the October estimate. The 2025 beef production forecast is now at 26.28 billion pounds, up a large 360 million from last month. This increase is the result of rising cattle on feed numbers, but also from much heavier cattle weights. Cattle are consistently running 30 pounds heavier this year than last as cheaper feed grains and better pastures have enticed feeders to hold cattle longer.

While cattle numbers were slightly negative for that complex, hog numbers were more friendly. Pork production for 2024 is now estimated at 27.86 billion pounds, down 90 million from October. The 2025 production forecast was cut 110 million pounds, taking it to 28.4 billion pounds.

On the demand side, U.S. beef exports are forecast at 2.96 billion pounds for 2024 and 2.7 billion pounds for 2025. These are increases of 5 million pounds for this year and 100 million pounds for 2025. Pork exports are projected at 7.15 billion pounds for 2024 and 7.36 billion pounds for 2025. This was an increase of 1 million pounds for 2024, but a reduction of 40 million pounds for 2025. Questionable Chinese demand as that country’s domestic production rebounds from its latest outbreak of African swine fever is behind the lower export forecast.

The USDA increased its beef import forecast for both 2024 and 2025. For 2024, the USDA is projecting imports of 4.5 billion pounds, up 125 million pounds from last month. The 2025 beef import forecast is at 4.51 billion pounds, up 90 million pounds from a month ago. The reason for the higher beef import forecast is from grading demand. 

Forecasted returns for both cattle and hogs were up this month. The projected return on a steer for 2024 is now at $186.68 per hundredweight, up fifty cents from last month. For 2025, the projected return is $188 per cwt, up $1.50 from October. On hogs, the projected return for 2024 is $61.05 per cwt, up $1.25 on the month. Next year’s forecast is at an even $59 per cwt, a $1 increase.

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