The only real surprise in the December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates was in U.S. corn balance sheets. Production data is not altered in the December update, which left the U.S. corn crop at 15.14 billion bu. We did see a couple sizable changes to corn demand that had a surprising impact on ending stocks.

Corn demand increased 50 million bu for ethanol and 150 mbu on exports following the stronger than expected start to marketing year. This cut the U.S. corn carryout to 1.738 bbu for the 2024/25 marketing year, 22 mbu less than last year, and 200 mbu less than trade was expecting. This also reduced the U.S. corn stocks to use to 11.4 percent and puts it much closer to a rationing level.

No changes were made to either production or demand in the domestic soybean balance sheets this month. This held the U.S. crop at 4.46 bbu and ending stocks at 470 mbu, which was in line with trade expectations. In turn this held soybean stocks to use at 10.8 percent, just above the volume where rationing begins.

Soy products were also little changed this month despite solid export demand on soy oil. The USDA is now projecting a soy oil carryout of 1.5 billion pounds this year, 30 million fewer than last month. While lower, this alteration pales in comparison to current soy oil exports and is being strongly questioned. In the first nine weeks of the marketing year, the U.S. sold 917 million pounds of soy oil for export. The USDA raised its soy oil export forecast to 1.1 billion pounds this month, an increase of 500 million pounds in just one month. The USDA raised its oil yield this month though, and cut food, feed, and industrial demand by 200 million pounds to hold ending stocks mostly unchanged. This has left many analysts and traders scratching their heads, especially with the expansion that is taking place in the U.S. biofuel industry.

U.S. soy meal ending stocks were left unchanged this month at 450,000 tons.

As with corn and soybeans, U.S. wheat production was left unchanged this month at 1.97 billion bu. Wheat imports increased 5 mbu this month, but exports expanded by 25 mbu for a net 20 mbu reduction to ending stocks. Traders had been expecting wheat reserves to hold steady this month. This took the U.S. wheat carryout down to 795 mbu, a 39.8 percent stocks-to-use ratio.

On the global side of balance sheets, the only significant changes were also to corn and reflected the smaller U.S. ending stocks. The world corn carryout this year is now estimated at 296.44 million metric tons. This was down 7.7 mmt from November and 7.2 mmt under the average trade guess. The world soybean carryout is now estimated at 131.87 mmt, nearly equal to last month and 700,000 mt below the average trade guess. The world wheat carryout estimate was also nearly steady and in line with trade expectations at 257.88 mmt.

The only change to South American production this month was a 1 mmt increase to the Argentine soybean crop, taking it to 52 mmt. The Argentine corn crop held at 51 mmt. Brazil crops were unchanged at 127 mmt for corn and 169 mmt for soybeans. The USDA South American crop estimates remain some of the lowest in the world, including from nearly all analysts in those countries.

Red meat balance sheets were also little changed this month. U.S. beef production for 2024 increased 10 million pounds, taking it to 27.04 billion pounds. Beef production for 2025 was cut a large 620 million pounds to 25.67 billion pounds. This cut was the result of lower cattle replacement numbers and fears it will further reduce the U.S. cattle inventory that is already the lowest since 1951.

Beef exports held steady for 2024 this month at 2.96 billion pounds, and were reduced by 105 million pounds for 2025, taking it to 2.595 billion pounds. Beef imports grew by 80 million pounds for 2024 to 4.588 billion pounds, and the 2025 forecast increased 195 million pounds to 4.71 billion pounds. These higher imports are the direct result of the lower production forecast and solid consumer demand.

Pork production for 2024 was trimmed by 40 million pounds, putting it at 27.82 billion pounds. Production for 2025 is now estimated at 28.37 billion pounds, a 30-pound cut from last month. Pork exports were lowered for 2024 by 35 million pounds and for 2025 by 30 million pounds. This put exports at 7.12 billion pounds and 7.33 billion pounds, respectively.

Now that this data has been released, trade will start to place more emphasis on month, quarter, and year end positioning. 

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