DES MOINES, Iowa – Last month’s hog numbers offered no big surprises, according to one agricultural economist analyzing the Dec. 1 USDA Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report.

“(The report) said the Dec. 1 inventory of market hogs was up 0.5 percent; the breeding herd was up 0.1 percent, and the inventory of all hogs and pigs was up 0.5 percent at the start of December. Growth, but not much,” said Ron Plain, University of Missouri professor emeritus (retired) of agricultural economics. Plain spoke during a teleconference Dec. 23, 2024, the day the report was released.

Sponsored by the National Pork Board and the Pork Checkoff in Des Moines, the report said, as of Dec. 1, 2024, there were 75.8 million hogs and pigs on U.S. farms, up 1 percent from December 2023, but down slightly from Sept. 1, 2024.

The report said U.S. breeding inventory, at 6 million head, was up slightly from last year, but down 1 percent from the previous quarter. U.S. market hog inventory, at 69.8 million head, was up 1 percent from last year, but down slightly from last quarter, the report said.

“The market hog inventory at the start of December was the largest for any December, except December 2019 and 2020,” Plain said. “The report pegged the Dec. 1 inventory of market hogs weighing 180 pounds, and up at 99.5 percent of a year ago. The inventory of market hogs weighing 120-179 pounds was 99.4 percent of a year earlier.

“The inventory of market hogs weighing 50-119 pounds is up 1.4 percent, year-over-year,” he added. “The inventory of hogs weighing less than 50 pounds is 101.2 percent of a year before. Thus, it looks like winter hog slaughter will be down roughly 0.5 percent, and spring hog slaughter will be up about 1.3 percent.”

The report said the September-November 2024 pig crop, at 35.2 million head, was up 2 percent from 2023. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.96 million head, down slightly from 2023. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 49 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.92 for the September-November period, compared to 11.66 last year.

The report added United States hog producers intend to have 2.93 million sows farrow during the December 2024-February 2025 quarter, up slightly from the actual farrowings during the same period one year earlier, but down 1 percent from the same period two years earlier.

The report added intended farrowings for March-May 2025, at 2.95 million sows, are up 1 percent from the same period one year earlier, and up slightly from the same period two years earlier.

Bernt Nelson, American Farm Bureau Federation economist, said, “The rise in pigs saved per litter more than makes up for the 2 percent decline in farrowings for the fourth quarter. The slightly higher farrowing intentions, if paired with continued high pigs saved per litter, could increase inventory numbers, which would put downward pressure on prices to start out the new year.”

Lee Schulz, Ever.ag chief economist, said, “It’s really been a tale of two different periods in 2024. For the first half of the year, we’ve seen sow slaughter up roughly 5 percent. But then as the latter part of the year came into focus, we’ve seen sow slaughter down notably, especially as we looked at the June-August period, down almost 9 percent.”

The report said Iowa hog producers had the nation’s largest inventory among the states, at 24.6 million head; Minnesota had the second largest inventory at 9.5 million head; and North Carolina was third, with 8.2 million head.

In Indiana, total hog and pig inventory was estimated at 4.45 million head, down 50,000 head from a year ago, the USDA said. Breeding hog inventory, at 250,000 head, was down 7 percent from last December. Market hog inventory, at 4.2 million head, was down 1 percent from last year.

In Illinois, hogs and pigs totaled 5.6 million head, up 1 percent from Sept. 1, 2024, and up 2 percent from last year. Breeding inventory, at 630,000 head, was down 20,000 from the previous quarter, but unchanged from last year. Market hog inventory, at 4.97 million head, was up 1 percent from last quarter, and up 2 percent from last year.

In Michigan, total hog and pig inventory was estimated at 1.17 million head, down 110,000 head from a year ago. Breeding hog inventory, at 105,000 head, was down 9 percent from last December. Market hog inventory, at 1.07 million head, was down 9 percent from last year.

In Ohio, total hog and pig inventory was estimated at 2.7 million head, up 100,000 head from a year ago. Breeding hog inventory, at 200,000 head, was up 5 percent from last December. Market hog inventory, at 2.5 million head, was up 4 percent from last year. (Kentucky’s and Tennessee’s numbers weren’t included in the report).

Nelson said, much like 2024, demand will be a deciding factor for prices in 2025, with exports playing an important role.

“Since 2022, Mexico has been the largest importer of U.S. pork, with over $2.35 billion in pork purchases in 2023, accounting for nearly 30 percent of total exports by value,” he said.

“While 2024 has continued to be a promising year for pork exports globally (up 6 percent by value), and to Mexico even more so (up 11 percent by value), domestic per capita demand for pork has changed very little over the last decade.”

He said domestic demand is expected to grow by .4 pounds per capita in 2025, going from 50.5 pounds in 2024, to 50.9 pounds in 2025: “Pork will have to continue finding strong global demand to overcome downward market pressure from the elevated hog inventory to provide profitability for hog farmers in 2025.”