55 Years And Counting From The Tractor Seat

By Bill Whitman 

 2024 showed a very real picture of what to expect in 2025. Low commodity prices, high inputs, high interest rates, high land costs, taxes, equipment and parts prices, and inflation point us toward another year of challenges that agriculture hasn’t faced in decades. Most farms have been able to rearrange debt and secure operational capital for another year. But, yes, there’s a “but.” I hope that those reading this pay close attention – “but” the debt will follow, the low commodity prices will continue, the high inputs  and interests rates will continue to rise, and landlord or mortgage holders will expect to be paid their due even if they may have accepted interest only or a negotiated rent reduction for one year.

In a prior article I encouraged rethinking large capital expenditures until prices and expenses make the income available to give these expenditures consideration. It’s my belief that it will take one-two years for the economy to stabilize both continentally and internationally. This forecast is not based on any insight other than a practical analysis of the facts. Years on this Earth have taught me that things can be smoke and mirrors for a time but ultimately, the facts will be revealed, and it is facts the agriculture economy runs on.

I was watching a YouTube video this week where a young man was predicting his farm/ranch’s failure in 2025. He mentioned numerous mistakes and the ever-present learning curve as why his four-generation operation faced failure. To his credit, he accepted most of the responsibility and asked for help. My suggestion based on six-plus decades was simple – don’t accept any other option but succeeding. I am absolutely sure that by having three generations before him, each had faced challenges as troubling as his and most likely more dire. I also listened to a millennial whose dad is still running the farm who said he could think of a lot better jobs he would enjoy more than what he’s doing, and be home for supper. To him, I really think the best thing he can do for his family and his dad in particular, is go do one of those jobs he prefers because when it’s his turn to muddle his way through hard times, he won’t have the heart to succeed.

As you look for ways to rearrange debt and payments you need to know exactly what it will take to pay that debt in the future. When something won’t work because there’s no way, short of a miracle, you can ever pay the rearranged debt, look for another way. It’s there, you just must find it. Often it requires having to put in longer hours and cutting back on conveniences.

Most of us have a set of cultivators in the barn or fence row, compared to herbicide and sprayer costs, fuel and labor is cheaper by far. One the options many are looking at is pulling back on fertilizer. This is one area I discourage cutting back on as the land has to provide for us year after year and often the full benefits of some kinds of fertilizers aren’t fully realized for a year or two. I certainly encourage every operation to look at the most economical way of meeting fertilizer needs. Look at foliar for benefits this year and alternative sources for potash and phosphorus, and for nitrogen, anhydrous remains the cheapest. In our state, Indiana, chicken litter is about all bought up a year in advance. I encourage each of us to look for other sources like cow manure and horse manure. Once again, labor and fuel costs rise but cash for commercial fertilizers are reduced.

I plan on continuing to encourage “thinking out of the box” in coming articles. One of the attributes of the American farmer is that we find a way to survive. I have a sense that the internet will provide some thought-provoking options as we look for what farmers in other parts of the country do, we can learn. We’re good at this, we learn and apply throughout our lives.

IndianaAg@bluemarble.net