You’ll recall November milk production was down 1.0 percent from a year ago. The November Dairy Products report shows where the milk ended up.

November cheese production totaled 1.151 billion pounds, down for the first time since June. Down 6.1 percent from October and 1.7 percent below November 2023. Year to date 13.1 billion pounds of cheese had been produced in the U.S., up 0.4 percent from 2023.

Wisconsin output fell to 291.2 million pounds, down 7.5 percent from October, and 1 percent below a year ago. California produced just under 200 million pounds, down 2.2 percent from October, and 3.3 percent below a year ago. Idaho contributed 79.7 million pounds, down 15.5 percent from October, but 3.8 percent above a year ago. New Mexico, with 72.2 million pounds, was down 5.0 percent from October, and 5.9 percent below a year ago.

Italian cheese totaled 492.7 million pounds, down 3.6 percent from October, but 1.1 percent above a year ago. Year to date, 5.5 billion pounds had been produced, up 2.7 percent.

American output fell to 448.0 million pounds, down 8.1 percent from October, and 4.9 percent below a year ago. YTD, at 5.2 billion pounds, was down 3.7 percent from 2023.

Mozzarella totaled 387.1 million pounds, up 1.8 percent from a year ago, with YTD output at 4.4 billion pounds, up 3.8 percent.

Cheddar output dropped to 310.8 million pounds, down 23.1 million pounds or 6.9 percent from October, and down 11 million or 3.4 percent, from a year ago. YTD Cheddar output stood at 3.5 billion pounds, down 5.9 percent from a year ago.

Butter production climbed to 170.8 million pounds, up 1.8 million pounds or 1.1 percent from October’s output, which was revised up 1.5 million pounds, and was up 7.3 million pounds or 4.4 percent from a year ago. YTD butter topped 2 billion pounds for the first time and was up 5.6 percent from 2023. Butter output plunged 12.8 percent in California. Bird flu took a toll on November milk output there, down a record 9.2 percent from a year ago, mainly impacting butter and cheese totals.

Yogurt production totaled 380.7 million pounds, up 12.2 percent from a year ago, with YTD output at 4.5 billion pounds, up 6.1 percent.

Hard ice cream, at 51.6 million pounds, was up 6.4 percent from 2023. YTD, 678.1 million pounds had been produced, up 3.2 percent from a year ago.

Dry whey output, at 66.2 million pounds, was down 100,000 pounds or 0.2 percent from October, and down 2.4 million or 3.5 percent from a year ago. 

YTD whey was at 794 million pounds, down 8.3 percent from a year ago. Whey stocks grew to 57.7 million pounds, up 7.1 million or 14.0 percent from October, but were down 13.4 million pounds or 18.8 percent from a year ago.

Nonfat dry milk output fell to 120.1 million pounds, down 5.3 million or 4.2 percent from October, but was up 3.3 million pounds or 2.8 percent from a year ago. YTD NFDM was at 1.5 billion pounds, down 10.6 percent. Stocks climbed up to 238.1 million pounds, up 5.3 million, or 2.3 percent from October, and were up a hefty 37.9 million pounds or 18.9 percent from 2023.

Skim milk powder production, at 47 million pounds, was up 6 million pounds or 14.8 percent from October, but was down 23.7 million or 33.5 percent from a year ago. YTD SMP was at 502.9 million pounds, down 20.2 percent from 2023.

The Jan. 6 Daily Dairy Report pointed out “Manufacturers favored the production of nonfat dry milk over skim milk powder, suggesting that renewed demand from Mexico and domestic sources have been driving processing decisions.”

U.S. dairy exports fell to 448.2 million pounds in November, down 6.5 percent from November 2023, and the smallest volume since January 2022, according to HighGround Dairy. Shipments to the U.S.’ top two destinations declined, down 2.3 percent to Mexico, and down 17 percent to China, with shipments to Southeast Asia down 20 percent.

One of the bright spots was cheese, which totaled 87.1 million pounds, up 2.4 percent, and up 17.2 percent year to date. Much of the increased purchases were from Mexico.

Butter sailings totaled 6.7 million pounds, up 100 percent, and up from October, the second-highest volume of the year, according to HGD. Canada was the top destination, with a 70 percent share, and up for the fourth month in a row.

Nonfat/skim milk powder exports totaled 119.3 million pounds, down 19.7 percent, lowest monthly volume on a 30-day adjusted basis since August 2019, says HGD. Sales to Mexico were down 8 percent and down 89 percent to Chile, with significant declines to Asian nations, according to HGD. Dry whey exports were down 2.2 percent.

Meanwhile, lactose and powder pulled the first Global Dairy Trade auction of 2025 lower. Tuesday’s weighted average was down 1.4 percent, following the 2.8 percent drop on Dec. 17. Volume fell to 66.5 million pounds, down from 70.8 million, and the lowest since July 16, 2024. The average metric ton price, slipped to $4,029 U.S., down from $4,148 on Dec. 17.

Lactose led the declines, down 2.4 percent, after inching 0.5 percent higher on Dec. 17. Skim milk powder was down 2.2 percent, after dropping 2.9 percent, and whole milk powder was down 2.1 percent, after dropping 2.9 percent as well. Anhydrous milkfat was down 1.6 percent, following a 3.8 percent decline on Dec.17.

Butter was up 2.6 percent, after inching 0.6 percent lower last time, and buttermilk powder was up 0.9 percent. GDT Mozzarella cheese was up 3.6 percent, after dropping 1.8 percent last time, and Cheddar was up 1.0 percent, after inching 0.2 percent lower last time.

StoneX says the GDT 80 percent butterfat butter price equates to $3.0159 per pound U.S., up 8.2 cents from Dec. 17. Cheddar equated to $2.1446, up 2.1 cents. GDT skim milk powder averaged $1.2166 per pound, down from $1.2505. Whole milk powder averaged $1.7255 per pound, down from $1.7645.

Analyst Dustin Winston wrote: “Middle east market share rose sharply led by a large increase in anhydrous milkfat and butter markets. African market share was cut in half from the previous event with large declines in the same markets. Southeast Asia and Oceania held steady overall but had a noticeable increase in Cheddar. Since the last event North Asian market share also fell roughly 6 percent.”

Speaking in the Jan. 13 “Dairy Radio Now” broadcast, broker Dave Kurzawski said they expected U.S. exports to be flat, so being down that much is not bullish. If you consider what we produced, knowing that California milk output was down a record 9.2 percent due primarily to bird flu, we thought that would mean less nonfat dry milk and butter, as about 32 percent of U.S. butter and 50 percent of nonfat output is produced there. “We thought they’d both be down but that was not the case.”

We produced plenty of nonfat and butter in spite of the issues in California, he said, but cheese continues to “underwhelm.” “We’re not sure why,” he admitted, “But total cheese output was down 1.7 percent and Cheddar output was down 3.4 percent.”