No changes were made to the U.S. corn balance sheets in the February supply and demand update from January. Corn production remains at 14.87 billion bu, as it will for the remainder of the marketing year. No changes took place on the demand side, holding ending stocks at 1.54 bbu. While this is a 233 million bu reduction from last year, several analysts believe corn demand is currently underestimated. This is especially for exports that are running 34 percent ahead of last year and ahead of this year’s expected pace. The USDA raised its average cash price projection for corn to $4.35 per bushel, up 10 cents from January.

As with corn, no changes took place to domestic soybean balance sheets this month from last. The U.S. soybean production is set for the year at 4.36 bbu, and this month demand was unchanged at 4.35 bbu as well. Soybean ending stocks remain at 380 mbu, and as with corn, demand is also being questioned. This is from crush and soy oil export sales that are already at 92 percent of projections with 34 weeks left in the marketing year. The USDA lowered its soybean price projection 10 cents this month to $10.10 per bushel.

We did see changes to domestic wheat balance sheets this month, albeit minimal. U.S. wheat production for this year remains at 1.97 bbu. We did see milling demand increase by 4 mbu this month, which was partially offset by a 1 mbu decrease to seed usage. This lowered ending stocks to 794 mbu while a steady number had been expected. This change was not enough to warrant a price forecast adjustment, leaving the USDA’s cash outlook at $5.55 a bushel.

We did see a few more changes to world balance sheets this month, which was what trade was expecting. The USDA adjusted South American production following recent weather, with the greatest changes in Argentina. The USDA is now estimating the Argentine corn crop at 50 million metric tons, down 1 mmt from last month. Argentine’s soybean crop is now projected at 49 mmt, down 3 mmt from January. The corn estimate was in line with trade expectations, but the soybean number was below expectations. Sources in Argentina feel even these estimates may be too high following recent weather stress.

Changes to Brazil’s crops were minimal this month. The USDA left the soybean crop estimate at 169 mmt which is below nearly every other projection being made. Trade was expecting an increase in the Brazil soy crop of 1 mmt this month, which would still be at the low end of others. The USDA cut Brazil’s corn crop estimate 1 mmt, taking it to 126 mmt following planting delays to the safrinha crop.

These changes combined with other alterations to cut global carryout estimates. World corn ending stocks are now estimated at 290.31 mmt, 3 mmt less than January’s estimate. World soybean carryout is projected at 124.34 mmt, a 4 mmt reduction from last month. The world wheat carryover is projected at 257.56 mmt, down 1.3 mmt from January. This month’s ending stocks were also all below trade estimates.

One number from the global wheat numbers that is being questioned is China’s wheat import forecast. The USDA cut China’s wheat import forecast to 8 mmt for this year, down 2.5 mmt from the January projection. Last year China imported 13.6 mmt of wheat, but record domestic production and an elevated corn use in feed have limited China’s import needs. The USDA may still be too optimistic on China’s wheat needs though, as sources in China claim imports will be just half of last year.

On the red meat side of balance sheets, some sizable changes were made from last month in the beef complex. U.S. beef production for this year is now estimated at 26.57 billion pounds, a 780-million-pound increase from January. This is from a combination of heavier cattle weights and rising cattle numbers. Beef exports are forecast at 2.8 billion pounds for this year, a 200-million-pound increase from last month. Projected beef imports remained steady this month at 4.77 billion pounds.

Estimated pork production for 2025 also increased, but by a minimal 20 million pounds. This put the year’s projected production at 28.53 billion pounds. Pork exports were trimmed this month by 30 million pounds to a total of 7.3 billion pounds.

Now that this data has been released, trade will quickly revert to South America’s harvest activity for price discovery. We will also start to see more positioning in the market for the upcoming U.S. planting season. Ahead of this we will see several acreage and production estimates released, including data from the USDA Ag Outlook Conference. We will also start to see more interest in U.S. weather outlooks, especially with several regions of the US currently in drought conditions.

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