ARLINGTON, VA. — USDA’s 2025 Market Outlook for the livestock and poultry sectors was announced at the 101st Ag Outlook Forum by Michael McConnell, chair of the Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Committee for USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board. Higher livestock and poultry prices paid to farmers are expected during the coming market year, according to McConnell, who works for the office of the chief economist for USDA.

“We expect corn and soybean meal prices to fall in the 2024-25 marketing year, and we expect that decline to continue into the 2025-26 marketing year. Overall, we see downward pressure on both these feed markets. Hay markets continue to move lower on improving growing conditions and recovering supplies,” McConnell said of the drivers behind USDA’s current projections for livestock.     

The projections include a total red meat and poultry production increase in 2025. Tight beef supplies are expected to reduce exports and raise imports, and an increase in broiler and pork per capita disappearance is expected to drive higher total domestic use, according to USDA. 

Specifically, fed steers are expected to gain in value by 7.3 percent to $201 per cwt. Feeder steers will gain 8.6 percent to $274, while lean hogs will increase by 3.2 percent to $64. Composite broilers, at 132 cents per pound, will rise by 1.8 percent in value. Turkey hens, at 97 cents per pound, will gain 3 percent, while wholesale eggs, projected at 444 cents per dozen, will increase by 4.6 percent in 2025, USDA predicts. 

“There are several factors driving the (livestock) forecast that will continue to be important in 2025,” said McConnell, noting that drought patterns affecting pastureland have shifted but remain improved from 2023. “While there are some areas starting to see concerns, the overall picture is fairly good as many regions are seeing their pasture and forage conditions improve greatly after consecutive drought years. 

“That provides some context as we look at the overall cattle inventory,” he continued. “The herd is still in a contractionary stage, and the current herd size is the smallest we have seen since 1951. This contraction has been underway since its most recent peak in 2019, however we did see the rate of contraction slow in 2024. That may indicate that we are starting to see the beginnings of a turn. While the herd has been getting smaller, feedlots are accounting for a larger share of the herd, resulting in a lower share of the herd available for breeding and placement.”

This means feedlots have been leaving cattle on feed for longer and marketing at heavier weights. Despite the relatively smaller herd size, placements into feedlots have held up as strong feeder cattle prices have incentivized cow-calf producers to bring their cattle to market, McConnell explained. 

“Additionally, feedlot inventories came into the year relatively well stocked,” he said. “The current market setup raises the question: will feedlots be able to maintain the throughput and find available steers and heifers in the feeder market? At some point replacement feeders will become too tight and too expensive, especially considering the recent constraints on imported cattle from Mexico.”

Strong retail prices for beef are expected to continue to support stable prices for livestock producers in the coming market year (given no further major trade policy events or other events), according to McConnell. 

As for USDA’s hog forecast, growth in the litter rate is driving domestic hog supplies, fueling increased production and swift movement to market. For 2025-26, exports will be an important component of the demand structure.

“In contrast to cattle, hog supplies have been increasing over the past year; that is expected to continue in 2025, supporting production growth,” McConnell said. “Pork use has been keeping up with production, though, benefitting from the relatively tight beef market both domestically and abroad. In 2024, the U.S. pig crop increased nearly 2 percent. That, along with heavier dress weights, support much of the 1.8 percent growth we saw in pork production. The growth in the pig crop was almost entirely due to higher litter rates.”

While pork prices did not realize their typical seasonal peaks and valleys in pricing during 2024, there was a strong surge in prices during the holiday season. This resulted in hog prices finishing nearly 5 percent higher than in 2023. 

“Thus far in 2025 pork prices have continued to be above (2024) levels. This is in large part what’s driving the 2025 hog price forecast, which we expect to be higher, especially in the first three-quarters of the year,” said McConnell. 

USDA’s livestock and poultry outlooks were formed using data from the current WASDE report, and assumes “normal” weather patterns, current farm policies remain in place and no additional animal disease outbreaks occur. 

“Currently we expect hog prices to reflect (2024) wholesale price trends and carry over into much of 2025,” McConnell said. “The current forecast is that we will continue to see the export market be a steadily important component of the pork industry’s demand structure.”

McConnell also explained USDA projections for broilers and turkeys, which can be accessed via the full USDA Market Outlook for Livestock and Poultry at https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details?pubid=110971. 

Access the latest USDA-WASDE report at http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/index.htm.