WASHINGTON, D.C. – In a year when nationwide corn acreage is estimated to be up and soybean acreage down, Ohio is an outlier in the region. Buckeye state farmers are expected to plant 50,000 more acres of soybeans and 150,000 fewer acres of corn than in 2024, according to the USDA.

Other states in the region – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan and Tennessee – should see increases in corn and a drop in soybean acreage, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) said. The agency released its Prospective Plantings report March 31.

The decision-making process on crop selection may be influenced by several factors, such as cropping practices, and environmental, geographic and economic issues unique to each operation, Ben Torrance, Ohio state statistician for NASS, told Farm World.

As an example, he mentioned input costs comparisons. “Seed and fertilizer are expensive components of corn production plus drying costs at harvest. Herbicide costs tend to be higher in soybean production.”

Transportation costs, the outlook on futures markets and “lingering (economic and environmental) pains from drought experienced in the 2024 crop year,” are also factors, Torrance noted.

Farmers also consider current crop rotation practices and long-range weather forecast implications, he said. Difficult-to-manage environmental factors are also considered.

“Timing and prevalence of tar spot in corn has impact on yield potential and standability through harvest,” Torrance pointed out. “This is a relatively new issue being experienced by Ohio corn growers. In Ohio, vomitoxin contamination is a growing concern linked to weather conditions during pollination and harvest. Contamination drastically affects marketability of the crop.”

Nationwide, NASS has estimated corn acreage at 95.3 million, up from 91 million last year. If realized, this would be the largest planted acreage amount since 2013 and the third highest since 1944.

Farmers are expected to plant 83.5 million acres of soybeans, down from 87 million in 2024. Decreases of 300,000 acres or more are anticipated in six states, including Illinois and Iowa, NASS said. If realized, the planted acres in Ohio and New York would be the largest on record, NASS said.

All wheat acreage was estimated to be 45.4 million, down from 46 million. If realized, this would be the second lowest wheat planted area since records began in 1919, the agency said. Winter wheat was estimated at 33.3 million acres, down from last year’s 33.4 million.

The nationwide corn numbers released by NASS were slightly above the average pre-report trade guess, and slightly less for soybeans, said Rhett Montgomery, DTN lead analyst.

“Corn continues to really be choppy,” he said. “Looking back through recent history it really hit its peak there in the years immediately after 2010 and it’s pretty much turned sideways with any given year’s price action dictating kind of how it varies from that. Really, it’s a pivot right around just above 91 or so million acres.”

The corn acreage estimate, however, was “within expectations, given especially how resilient corn prices have been through the late fall and early part of 2025, as compared to soybeans, which seems to be the vast switch is probably soybean acres going straight over to corn acres,” Montgomery said.

The wheat acreage estimate – a drop of 680,000 – was a surprise, he said. “(Analysts) were expecting (on a Dow Jones survey) a slight increase in year over year wheat acreage of about 300,000 acres or so. If there was a bullish surprise or a surprise in general in this report, it probably came on the wheat acres side.”

Todd D. Davis, Indiana Farm Bureau chief economist, said analysts surveyed prior to the report’s release believed the corn area would increase from last year as declining corn stocks from 2024 have improved corn profitability relative to previous years. In contrast, he said in a statement, soybean stocks have increased in the U.S. as well as in our South American competitors.

“The market was preparing for increases in corn acreage in 2025,” Davis said. “Using USDA’s corn supply and demand estimate from the February 2025 Agricultural Outlook Conference, a planted corn area of 95.3 million acres could potentially increase corn ending stocks if yields are above the record yield of 179.3 bushels per acre. In contrast, if farmers plant 83.5 million soybean acres, the 2025 soybean stocks could decrease, barring a trade disruption that would reduce exports.”

Managers can use this information to update and modify marketing and business plans to reflect market conditions, Davis noted. “Since the corn and soybean seed is still in the bag, market fundamentals could change significantly from USDA’s February projections. Mother Nature has the final say on the 2025 planted area.”

NASS also released the latest grain stocks numbers March 31. Corn stocks as of March 1, 2025, were 8.2 billion bushels, down 2 percent from a year ago. Soybean stocks totaled 1.9 billion bushels, up 4 percent. All wheat stocks were 1.24 billion bushels, up 14 percent.

Planting intentions by state:

Corn: Illinois, 11.1 million acres, up 3 percent from 2024; Indiana, 5.4 million, up 4 percent; Iowa, 13.5 million, up 5 percent; Kentucky, 1.6 million, up 17 percent; Michigan, 2.3 million, up 2 percent; Ohio, 3.25 million, down 4 percent; and Tennessee, 900,000, up 29 percent.

Soybeans: Illinois, 10.5 million, down 3 percent; Indiana, 5.7 million, down 2 percent; Iowa, 9.6 million, down 4 percent; Kentucky, 1.9 million, down 10 percent; Michigan, 2.15 million, down 2 percent; Ohio, 5.1 million, up 1 percent; and Tennessee, 1.75 million, down 4 percent.

Winter wheat: Illinois, 780,000, up 1 percent; Indiana, 320,000, up 3 percent; Kentucky, 500,000, down 11 percent; Michigan, 540,000, up 35 percent; Ohio, 570,000, up 10 percent; and Tennessee, 340,000, down 11 percent.