The USDA completely caught trade off guard in this month’s balance sheet update by not only raising the U.S. corn yield but finding more harvested acres as well. The USDA raised the average U.S. corn yield to 186.5 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushels, and added in 1.2 million harvested acres. These came partly from what the USDA claims is a lack of silage acres, which is being highly contested. The combination of these raised the U.S. corn crop to 17.02 billion bu, up 268 million bu from December. The USDA increased feed and residual demand by 100 mbu and trimmed industrial demand 10 mbu for a net increase to ending stocks of 198 mbu, putting it a 2.227 bbu. This is a comfortable 13.6 percent stocks to use. It is interesting to note that even with these bearish numbers, the USDA raised the average cash value on corn by 10 cents, putting it at $4.10 per bushel.

The USDA left its U.S. soybean yield unchanged this month at 53 bushels per acre but added in another 100,000 harvested acres. This added 9 mbu of soybeans to the U.S. crop, taking it to 4.262 bbu. The USDA made several changes to the demand side of balance sheets, including raising crush by 15 mbu and decreasing exports by 60 mbu. The net result was a 60 mbu increase to carryout, taking it to 350 mbu. This is an 8.2 percent stocks to use and gives the complex more breathing room. The USDA is now projecting an average cash value on soybeans of $10.20, down 30 cents from last month.

Few changes were made to wheat balance sheets this month. The USDA added in 4 mbu of wheat beginning stocks, putting available stocks at 855 mbu. The USDA lowered seed usage by 1 mbu and feed consumption by 20 mbu, bumping ending stocks to 926 mbu. This is a 45.6 percent stocks to use and equate to an average cash value of $4.90, down 10 cents from last month.

The USDA also released its winter wheat acreage report, estimating plantings at 33 million acres. This was 600,000 more acres than expected, but 200,000 fewer acres than in 2025.

Quarterly stocks data was also released and as expected, inventories of corn, soybeans, and wheat were all higher than a year ago. The December 1st U.S. corn supply was 13.3 bbu, a 10 percent increase from December 2024. On farm stocks were up 14 percent from last year and off farm stocks were up 4 percent. The U.S. soybean inventory was 3.29 bbu, up 6 percent on the year. On farm soybean stocks were up 2 percent and off farm increased by 10 percent. The U.S. wheat inventory was 1.68 bbu, a year-to-year increase of 7 percent. On farm wheat stocks were up 11 percent and off farm inventory was up 11 percent.

World carryout estimates also saw some sizable changes. The world corn carryout is now estimated at 290.91 million metric tons, well above the 279.15 mmt estimate from December. This was a result of the larger U.S. crop, but also a 6 mmt increase to China’s corn crop. The world soybean carryout is now estimated at 124.41 mmt, up from the prior 122.37 mmt estimate. World wheat ending stocks are forecast at 278.25 mmt, up from the previous 274.87 mmt from a larger Argentine crop.

The USDA made a few sizable changes to 2026 beef and pork balance sheets. Beef production for this year is now estimated at 25.74 billion pounds, up 10 million pounds from the last estimate. This is 260 million pounds less than the 2025 total. The USDA trimmed U.S. beef exports by 60 million pounds to a total of 2.425 billion pounds. This is a 143 million pounds decline from 2025. U.S. beef imports are now estimated at 5.525 billion pounds, up 75 million. The average steer value for 2026 is estimated at $235.75 per hundredweight.

U.S. pork production for 2026 is now estimated at 28.22 billion pounds, up a sizable 740 million pounds from the last projection. This is also a 640-million-pound increase from 2025. Pork exports are estimated at 7.085 billion pounds, up 65 million from a month ago. This is also 123 million more pounds of pork than the U.S. exported in 2025. Hogs are forecast to average $66.75 per hundredweight in 2026.

Census export data for the month of October was mixed. U.S. corn exports totaled 248.5 million bu, 6 percent less than in September, but a 63.4 percent increase from October 2024. Ethanol exports were record sized on October at 158 million gallons. U.S. soybean exports in October reached 197.1 mbu, a 43 percent decline from October 2024 and the lowest volume since 2008/09. Soy meal exports were a record though, totaling 1.4 mmt. Wheat exports in October were down 39 percent from September but a six-year high for the month at 72.2 mbu.

Red meat exports were also mixed for the month. October beef exports totaled 201 million pounds, the lowest volume since 2015. This was not the surprise given the tight U.S. cattle and beef inventory. U.S. beef imports in October totaled 136,900 mt, up 6.7 percent from September. U.S. pork exports in the month reached 632.2 million pounds, a 16 percent increase from September.

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