FORT WORTH, Texas – The Trump administration’s decision to import $800 million of beef from Argentina will not only fail to affect prices consumers pay for beef, but the majority of the beef products will not even make it onto supermarket shelves. This insight is courtesy of Andrew Coppin, CEO of the farm and ranch water resource management company RanchBot Monitoring Solutions, who spoke to Farm World about recent trade deals affecting beef and the state of the livestock industry.

“Essentially what Trump did was allow an increase in the quota of beef trim; this is not steak, this is not cuts of beef that are going to compete with prime U.S. cuts. It’s going to end up in grinding beef at McDonald’s, Taco Bell or some other institution that is selling tons of ground beef products,” said Coppin, adding that the 80,000 metric tons of Argentinian beef represents less than 1 percent of the U.S. beef supply (2024 production was estimated at nearly 27 million pounds). In addition to casting doubt on whether U.S. retail prices for beef will decline, Coppin is not sure that the overall volume of U.S. beef will actually increase as a result of the purchase.

“By pricing it favorably and avoiding tariffs, the question is does (the deal with Argentina) really result in more beef coming in?  Or, does it just result in a substitute? Do I import less beef from Brazil or Australia or some other market and just replace it with Argentinian beef that is cheaper?” he posed.

Though Coppin is not directly involved in the meat trading business, it is his understanding that as of late February, none of the beef purchased from Argentina had yet entered the U.S. beef supply. “No material change in the beef supply has been noted in the few weeks since the announcement, but it’s very hard to see it doing anything to the price of beef at the retail level,” he said.

If any of the Argentinian beef were to make it into U.S. supermarkets it would likely be blended with American ground beef, according to Coppin, who said the biggest issue driving up beef prices is continuing drought in the southwestern U.S. that has forced livestock producers to reduce herd sizes to their lowest level in eight years.

“I’m sitting here in Texas and it’s currently 80 degrees in the middle of winter, and it’s dry. Forty to 50 percent of the nation’s grazing lands are grading toward drought. On that basis, will ranchers increase their herd sizes? That is a risk play and it’s a higher risk if you’re not sure about grass and feed,” Coppin said.  

In addition to environmental factors driving up the price of beef, recent trade developments ostensibly fashioned to increase beef exports may end up backfiring on the American consumer, according to Coppin. “The recent announcement about a trade deal exporting beef to Taiwan on favorable terms could take more beef out of the market in America if someone can sell their beef to Taiwan for a better price,” he said. “When you’ve got a scarce product, this takes it out of the hands of the U.S. consumer. It’s a bit of a conundrum; you want to be selling your product globally and expand your markets, but you’re doing it at a time when supply is already constrained.”

Adding in recent trade deals with Australia (where a trade ban on U.S. beef was lifted in 2025), Indonesia, Cambodia and Malaysia involving U.S. beef exports, the net result could be more high-quality U.S. beef being shipped overseas. This would further deplete the domestic beef supply and could work to drive prices higher. “We’ve probably done more in the last month to reinforce a stronger beef price than we have to keep it in check,” Coppin said, adding that increased labor costs and a shortage of packing capacity have also contributed to higher prices.

The RanchBot co-founder, who works with hundreds of beef cattle ranchers across the country, feels that current retail prices for beef products are representative of a “new normal” facing consumers when budgeting their grocery lists. “We’ve got a risk-adjusted product, and all assets value themselves around risk. To grow beef is a high-risk business, and right now risk and demand are both very high,” he said. “I think beef is fairly priced; it’s what the market is prepared to pay. We haven’t seen a decline in beef consumption, in fact we’ve seen U.S. consumption continue to increase versus pork, chicken and other proteins. The market is ripe.”