More U.S. acreage estimates are starting to be released ahead of the March 31st USDA planting intentions report. The firm Allendale is projecting U.S. corn acres of 93.68 million versus 98.8 million last year. Soybean plantings are forecast at 85.66 million compared to last year’s 81.2 million. The S and P Global group is estimating corn acres at 95.2 million, up 200,000 from its January estimate. The group’s soybean acre estimate is 85 million, up 600,000 from January. S and P’s wheat acreage estimate is 44.05 million, up 40,000 from before.

The uncertainty with these estimates is how much the war with Iran and rising input costs have impacted planting decisions. It is possible the full effect of this will not be known until the June revisions are released.

NOAA has released its 90-day outlooks for the United States which will cover the majority of the planting season. U.S. temperatures for the months of April, May and June are expected to be normal in an area from South Dakota, through the Great Lakes, and into New England. The remainder of the U.S. is expected to see above to much above normal temperatures. For precipitation, the eastern third of the U.S. is expected to see above average rainfall, average rainfall in the central U.S., and below normal in the western third. While these forecasts do not indicate conditions that would significantly impact the U.S. planting season, they offer little relief for the drought in the Southern Plains.

We did see the updated Brazilian crop production numbers from CONAB recently. CONAB is now forecasting a soybean crop of 177 million metric tons, 130,000 mt less than the previous estimate. CONAB sees Brazil soybean exports at 114.39 mmt, a 2.2 mmt increase from February. Soybean ending stocks are forecast at 9.538 mmt, well below last month’s 11.866 mmt.

CONAB’s corn crop estimate is now at 138.27 mmt, down from last month’s 138.45 mmt. Corn exports held steady this month at 46.5 mmt, but ending stocks were trimmed to 11.595 mmt from February’s 11.761 mmt. The firm’s wheat crop estimate was held at 6.9 mmt, but ending stocks were bumped up a slim 44,000 mt to a total of 2.153 mmt.

The USDA is currently predicting Brazil crops of 180 mmt on soybeans, 132 mmt for corn, and 8 mmt of wheat.

The Brazilian soybean crusher ABIOVE has revised its soybean balance sheets for the country. ABIOVE is predicting a soybean crop of 177.85 mmt, an increase of 730,000 mt from its prior estimate. The firm’s soybean export forecast was held steady at 111.5 mmt and crush was raised by 500,000 mt to a total of 61.5 mmt. ABIOVE sees meal production of 47.7 mmt and oil production of 12.35 mmt. These are increases of 400,000 mt and 100,000 mt, respectively.

The International Grains Council has released corn and wheat production estimates for the 2026/27 marketing year. The world corn crop for 2026/27 is estimated at 1.32 billion mt, up from the 1.3 bmt in 2025/26. The world wheat crop for 26/27 is estimated at 822 mmt, well below the 845 mmt from 25/26. Rising input costs will impact these numbers, especially for corn.

The IGC is also predicting moderate shifts in global ending stocks from this year to next. The IGC is predicting a global corn carryout of 306 mmt this year, and 294 mmt for 2026/27. The IGC is forecasting wheat carryover of 283 mmt this year and 276 mmt not year. Soybean ending stocks are expected to be little changed going from 78 mmt for 2025/26 to 79 mmt in 2026/27.

U.S. grain demand remains strong despite rising prices that have made the U.S. the highest priced source in the world. The global wheat supply is rising with several countries seeing larger crops than in recent years. One that has seen wheat production decline is Brazil, which is forecasting a 12 percent decline in its wheat crop. This would be the smallest crop in five years. Brazil is no longer using wheat for crop rotation, lessening its attraction. What is more important in the world market is how much wheat is usable, with countries such as China producing large crops, but ones that are low in quality.

Census export data for the month of January was favorable for the market. U.S. corn exports in the month were a record 260.1 million bu. Dried distiller grains were a four-year high at 1.07 million tons and ethanol sales were a record 212.07 million gallons. Wheat exports in January were a three-year high at 59.2 mbu. January soybean exports were up on the year at 157.9 mbu while meal exports were a record at 1.687 million tons.

Census red meat export data for the month was well divided. Beef exports in January were at a 10-year low at 195.4 million pounds. Given a lack of U.S. beef supplies this was not that surprising, nor was it negative for the market. U.S. pork exports in January were a five year high at 590 million pounds.

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