As expected, only minimal changes were made to old crop balance sheets in the June WASDE report. Corn carryout was held at 2.14 billion bu, soybeans were left at 340 million bu, as was old crop wheat carryout at 935 mbu. Given the fact no changes are made to production in the June supply and demand report, these steady numbers were fully expected. 

The 2026/27 domestic balance sheets were mixed. New crop ending stocks of corn were also steady at 1.96 bbu this month, as was new crop soybean ending stocks at 310 mbu. We did see a sizable cut to new crop wheat carryout though, dropping it 18 mbu from May to a total of 744 mbu. This was a sizable 21 mbu less than the average trade guess as the US wheat crop was cut this month by 18 mbu. This reduction is the result of drought losses in the US Plains. 

Moderate changes were made to 2026/27 global balance sheets this month. Corn carryout came in at 281.2mmt, 3 mmt more than the average guess and 4 mmt more than in May. This is still a 17 mmt drop from old to new crop ending stocks. This is also a nearly 40 mmt drop in world carryout in four years. Global soybean carryout was left nearly steady this month at 124.81 mmt, a 300,000 mt decline from May, and wheat carryover was unchanged at 275.42 mmt. 

Only minimal changes were made to red meat balance sheets this month as well. Beef production for 2026 is now estimated at 25.44 billion pounds, 110 million fewer than in May. Beef production for 2027 was bumped up 70 million pounds to total 25.39 billion. Beef exports for 2026 were trimmed 20 million pounds to total 2.34 billion pounds, and 2027 exports were pegged at 2.33 billion pounds, down 10 million pounds. Beef imports were left unchanged at 6.1 billion pounds for 2026 and 6 billion pounds for 2027. Average steer values are $250.16 per hundredweight for 2026 and $253.75 a cwt for 2027. 

On hogs, pork production was upped by 10 million pounds for 2026 to 28 billion pounds, and 2027 production was raised 40 million pounds to 28.259 billion. Pork exports increased 20 million pounds for this year to 7.25 billion while 2027 exports were unchanged at 7.33 billion pounds. The average hog values for 2026 is estimated at $66.36 per cwt and the 2027 value is $64.75. 

The Consumer Price Index for May came in as expected, increasing 0.5% from April. The CPI reading, the gauge used to measure inflation, came in at 4.2%, up from the April reading of 3.8%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, was up 0.2% in May, which was just below the average trade guess. Food costs were up 0.2% in May, just beneath the average estimate. Energy costs spiked 3.9% in May after jumping 3.8% in April as the US/Iran war continued to disrupt global energy flow. When this rise in inflation is added to a positive May jobs report it increases the odds of interest rate hikes in the future, not the cuts that have been hoped for. 

China’s May soybean imports showed a moderate decline from last year. For the month China imported 11.79 million metric tons of soybeans, compared to 13.92 mmt in May 2025. This brings China’s 2026 imports to 36.94 mmt, a 0.4% decrease from last year’s import pace. There are several reasons for the decline, including fewer animals on feed, a larger domestic crop, and the use of government stored soybeans. There are already concerns China may not meet its 25 mmt import target from the United States, but seasonally China is not usually an active buyer of US soybeans until we get closer to harvest. 

China also reported May meat imports of 482,00 mt. This brings China’s year to date meat imports to 2.58 mmt, a 3.5% decline from the 2025 total. Culling of domestic herds has decreased the need for imports, especially on pork. A shift in diets to contain more beef is altering the country’s imports as well. 

A factor that is getting more attention in China in the country’s shrinking population. Not only is this affecting China’s import needs, but their commodity usage on a whole. China’s government is now taking steps to increase the country’s birth rate, but more declines to consumptions will come before we see increases. 

High input prices are still a factor in the United States, but farmers in Brazil are now seeing the greatest impact. Unlike in the US where several fertilizers are manufactured, Brazilian farmers need to import nearly all needs. This comes as commodity values have fallen to contract lows, creating significant economic pressure for the Brazilian farmer. In the United States, farmers also have the ability to cut back on fertilizer use, and in some cases skip a year’s application if need be. Brazilian soils are not that rich and require heavier fertilizer applications. As a result, the expansion we see in Brazil soybean production this year may be the smallest in recent history, if any acres are added at all. 

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