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High temperatures negatively impact milk production in central US
 
Mielke Market Weekly
By Lee Mielke
 
You’ll recall that May milk production was up 2.3 percent from a year ago. The USDA’s Dairy Products report shows where it was used.
Cheese output hit 1.282 billion pounds, up 1.1 percent from April, and 2.0 percent above May 2025. Output for the five-month period totaled 6.3 billion pounds, up 2.7 percent from 2025.
Mozzarella production totaled 441.5 million pounds, up 6.2 percent from a year ago. Year to date, 2.1 billion pounds had been produced, up 3.3 percent from 2025.
American cheese, at 498.9 million pounds, was up 1.5 percent from April but down 2.6 percent from a year ago. YTD 2.4 billion pounds had been produced, up 0.1 percent.
Italian style cheeses jumped to 559.6 million pounds, up 0.7 percent from April, and up 6.5 percent from a year ago, pushing YTD output to 2.7 billion pounds, up 5.2 percent.
Cheddar output climbed to 350.5 million pounds, up 20.4 million or 6.2 percent from April, but was down 4.2 million pounds or 1.2 percent from a year ago. YTD Cheddar hit 1.7 billion pounds, up 0.4 percent.
Butter production, at 224.3 million pounds, was down 32,000 pounds from April, but up 7.6 million pounds or 3.5 percent from a year ago. YTD, 1.1 billion pounds had come out of U.S. churns, up 5.6 percent from a year ago.
Yogurt production totaled 463.8 million pounds, up 5.0 percent from a year ago, with YTD output hitting 2.3 billion pounds, up 5.5 percent. Hard ice cream came in at 69.2 million pounds, up 7.1 percent from a year ago, with YTD output hit 312.9 million pounds, up 3.6 percent.
Dry whey production climbed to 82.6 million pounds, up 5.7 million pounds or 7.4 percent from April, and up 9 million or 12.2 percent from a year ago. YTD whey hit 383.1 million pounds, up 6.9 percent. Stocks jumped to 63.0 million pounds, up 2.1 million or 3.5 percent from April, and up 6 million pounds, or 0.9 percent from a year ago.
Nonfat dry milk output fell to 173.3 million pounds, down 6.9 million pounds or 3.8 percent from April, but up 16.2 million or 10.3 percent from a year ago. YTD output hit 832.7 million pounds, up 7.4 percent. Stocks inched up to 246.8 million pounds, up 1.1 million or 0.4 percent from April, but were down 10 million or 3.9 percent from a year ago.
Skim milk powder production dropped to 29.4 million pounds, down 6.1 million pounds or 17.4 percent from April, and down 19.3 million or 39.7 percent from a year ago. YTD skim milk powder stands at 177.1 million pounds, down 3.5 percent from 2025.
Prices on Chicago’s LaSalle Street were mostly higher as of Thursday morning, as traders anticipated Friday afternoon’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report which will include the latest milk production and price estimates.
Block Cheddar traded Thursday morning at $1.5650 per pound, highest since May 20, but 9.50 cents below a year ago, after closing last week at $1.4325. The barrels hit $1.55 per pound Thursday, highest since May 18, 12.50 cents below a year ago, following a close last week at $1.4750.
High temperatures in recent weeks have negatively impacted milk output in the Central region, reports Dairy Market News. Contacts say they are getting fewer spot milk offers. Prices increased slightly this week and ranged from $3.00-under to $2-over Class. Cheesemakers anticipate spot prices to increase in the coming weeks, as milk production continues to decline seasonally. Cheese production is steady to stronger, as plants returned to operating full schedules following the 4th of July holiday weekend. Retail cheese demand is steady but food service sales remain light. Export demand is strong, but declining cheese prices in Europe are negatively impacting international interest, according to some.
Milk and cream production are lighter in the West, but cheese manufacturing is receiving expected milk deliveries. Class III spot milk is available but demand from cheese makers was moderate. Cheese production is stable and keeping pace with demand.
CME butter climbed to $1.65 per pound Monday and was still there Thursday, 94 cents below a year ago, after closing last week at $1.6375.
Central region high temperatures were negatively impacting milk output and component levels, according to DMN. Cream production is declining week-to-week but remains up from last year. Cream demand picked up following the holiday weekend and cream multiples pushed higher this week. The strongest demand is from Class II manufacturers, but some butter makers were purchasing cream to keep churns full. Butter makers are running full production and building inventory for use later in the year. Domestic butter demand is steady to light. Export demand is strong, but lighter than it was earlier in the year. Inventories of 82 percent butterfat butter are snug, according to DMN.
Milk and cream production is lighter in the West but stakeholders say inexpensive spot loads of cream were available. Cream demand from butter manufactures was moderate though churns are active, keeping production and inventories stable. Domestic butter demand varied from steady to somewhat lighter this week, but manufacturers say year-to-date sales are up, especially for bulk butter. Export demand is steady.
Grade A nonfat dry milk fell to $1.4750 per pound Tuesday, lowest since Feb. 2, 2026, but reversed direction Wednesday and was trading Thursday at $1.55 per pound, 28.25 cents above a year ago. It closed last week at $1.5050 per pound.
CME dry whey gave up 1.25 cents the first two days of this week, but gained it back Thursday, closing at 68.50 cents per pound, 11.75 cents above a year ago, after finishing last week at 68.50 cents per pound.
Dairy farmers can be grateful that strong exports are keeping U.S. prices as strong as they are, considering the amount of milk being produced. May exports totaled 574 million pounds, up 13.4 percent from May 2025, and up 0.9 percent from April.
HighGround Dairy says “More product moved to eight of the U.S.’ top 10 export destinations, led by China, where shipments surged 213 percent from 2025. The sharp year-over-year increase largely reflects an easy comparison, as U.S.-China trade tensions weighed heavily on exports a year ago. Even so, May marked the largest monthly U.S. dairy export volume since June 2025,” says HighGround.
Cheese exports hit 135.4 million pounds, up 18.4 percent from a year ago, and up 23.8 percent year to date. Butter sailings totaled 21.9 million pounds, up 89.4 percent from 2025, and up 104.2 percent year to date.
Nonfat dry and skim milk powder exports fell to 109.5 million pounds, down 20 percent from a year ago. HighGround says that likely reflects elevated U.S. prices relative to competing exporters. On a 30-day adjusted basis, it was the lowest monthly volume since January 2025, according to HGD, with exports to Mexico down 13.2 percent.
Dry whey exports, at 60.5 million pounds, were up 112 percent, highest volume since June 2010. Shipments rose to all the top 10 destination countries, according to HGD, with China purchases up a whopping 437 percent.
Global dairy prices continued to fall seasonally at this week’s Global Dairy Trade, down for the third event in a row.
 
7/10/2026