Global commodity production is falling short of demand. U.S. corn demand for the 2026/27 marketing year is currently predicted to be 320 million more than this year’s crop, even with USDA finding more acres. Soybean demand is 30 mbu more than the latest crop estimate, and wheat demand is 340 mbu greater than crop size. The same situation is developing in the global market. Global corn production is expected to fall 25 mmt under demand, wheat consumption is expected to be 7 mmt above production, and world soybean usage will equal the current crop size estimate.

The U.S. corn and soybean crops are progressing at above normal paces. The U.S. corn crop is now 16 percent dented, 4 percent ahead of average. Pods have been set on 74 percent of the U.S. soybean crop, 5 percent above normal. While these are not significant differences, these do indicate the U.S. harvest will likely be early this year. The cash market has not softened though, which is what normally happens ahead of harvest. In fact, interior basis values have improved in several areas where country movement is down, and processing margins remain high.

More interest is being placed in U.S. strategic crude oil reserves. The United States currently has 298.7 million barrels of crude oil in the strategic reserves. This is a decline of 6.1 million barrels in just the past week and the lowest volume since 1983. The current crude oil reserve is a 14-day supply and a concern in the energy complex.

Ukraine officials have lowered that country’s grain export forecast. Ukraine is now expected to export 39.4 million mt of grain this year, down from the previous forecast for 43.1 mmt. Of this, 19.7 mmt is forecast to be wheat. Heavy damage continues to take place to ports in Odessa, forcing Ukraine to export more via the rail market. This moves grain west into the European Union, where it is needed due to drought losses. These issues, along with the closure of most Russian ports, have greatly reduced the volume of available wheat in the world market.

Ukraine officials have released estimates on how much crop production is in regions under Russian occupancy at this time. Satellite imagery indicates there are 9.3 million metric tons of grains and oilseeds in areas Russia currently has control of. This includes 5.5 mmt of wheat, 1.3 mmt of sunflowers, and 800,000 mt of corn. The question now is if Russia is including these in their production estimates as well.

China’s soybean imports for the month of July totaled 11.48 million metric tons.  This was down 1.6 percent from July 2025 as this year’s imports from Brazil ramped up sooner than a year ago. China’s year-to-date soybean imports total 61.5 mmt, a year-to-year increase of 0.7 percent. China is now starting to rotate inventory ahead of the U.S. harvest, and this may further depress imports for the time being. China is expected to be an active soybean importer through the fall months, although reductions in the country’s hog and cattle herds may impact overall demand going forward.

Global food costs in July were the highest in over three years and are becoming a concern in the global economy. Data from the United Nations showed the global food cost index rose to a reading of 131.1 in July, the highest since January 2023. Food costs were driven up be the cereals and vegetable oils, as costs of meats and dairy products declined. Rising food costs have impacted consumers more as energy prices have rallied at the same time. Elevated food inflation will be a key factor in future interest rate decisions, in the U.S. and abroad the same.

A story in the livestock market that received mixed reviews is the White House decision to allow tariff-free ground beef imports for the next 90 days. This is being done in an effort to lessen the impact of high beef costs for consumers. President Donald Trump claims this will lower the cost of ground beef by 25 percent. Cattle producers in the United States voiced strong opposition to this decision as it will greatly reduce their profit margins.

Updated crop reports out of the European Union show that stress is not letting up at all. This is now more of a concern on corn, with total EU production forecast to fall to and likely below 50 million metric tons this year. If correct, this would be the smallest EU corn crop in the past 30 years. The greatest losses are being shown in France with a crop projected at 9 mmt, down 35 percent from last year. Some analysts believe the French corn crop could come in below 7 mmt making it the smallest crop since 1976. This loss has been a great benefit for the Ukraine export market as corn can be moved into the EU by rail.

Another region of the world starting to show weather stress is Canada. Canadian officials claim the cold, wet spring the country had has elevated the need for crop protection services, mainly fungicide in grain. In turn this has raised the cost of producing this year’s crops in Canada. The impact of this on Canadian bottom lines is not yet known as farmers will need to see final yields to determine a true cost per bushel.

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