By KAREN BINDER
Illinois Correspondent

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Apple harvest forecasts are holding true going into early November reports, with the national crop coming in at four percent less than last year.

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service initial apple forecast called for 9.5 billion pounds, which is a figure fractionally smaller than the average crop size during 2004-08. National market reports indicate most of this production decline is attributed to bad spring weather, especially in eastern and central states. In Washington, the nation’s largest apple producer is expecting a slightly larger crop this year.

According to the U.S. Apple Assoc., fresh apple holdings on Nov. 1 totaled 103.8 million bushels, a 7 percent decrease from last year and 2 percent less than the five-year average.

Processing apple holdings totaled 38.2 million bushels, 10 percent less than last year and 18 percent below the five-year average. The apple industry’s trade organization, U.S. Apple Assoc., forecast an even smaller harvest, falling at 221.5 million bushels compared to the 225.6 million bushels estimated by the USDA. Despite the smaller crop, experts predict a strong market season, including a growing export market. Apples are the country’s top fruit export, noted Mark Seetin, U.S. Apple’s director of regulatory and industry affairs. Midwestern states’ yield will yield 22.2 million bushels, down from 34.3 million bushels last year.  More than half of the Midwestern crop will come from Michigan, which expects to produce 15.5 million bushels this year, also down from last year’s 27.4 million bushels.