DES MOINES, Iowa — U.S. hog numbers last month were higher than market analysts predicted prior to the release of the USDA’s September Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report, which also stated Iowa herds and U.S. farms are on the increase.

”The fact that every key number in the report was slightly larger than analysts’ pre-report estimates leads me to believe it is bearish,” said Steve Meyer, president of Paragon Economics of Des Moines. “But (the Sept. 28) pre-report sell-off may have largely accounted for the bearish impact.”

Joining Meyer at a press briefing were Altin Kalo, economist at Steiner Consulting in Manchester, N.H.; Dale Durcholz, senior analyst for AgriVisor Services in Bloomington, Ill.; and Jim Robb, director of the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Lakewood, Colo. Sponsored by the National Pork Board and pork checkoff in Des Moines, the USDA report said the number of U.S. hogs and pigs totaled 66.6 million on Sept. 1, which is 3 percent more than June 1 and 1 percent above the September 2010 number.

Kalo said the U.S. hog numbers were slightly higher than what the market was expecting “but not excessively so.

“On the overall inventory, the number came in about half a percent higher than what the expectation was,” he said. “Same thing for the breeding herd and the same thing for the marketings.”

As the nation’s largest pork producer, Iowa’s hog inventory as of Sept. 1 was 20 million head, the Iowa Hogs & Pigs survey said, up 2 percent from both June 1 and September 2010 when the count was 19.6 million for both reports. Moreover, the total new Iowa pig crop for June to August was 5 million head, with producers farrowing 485,000 sows during the quarter with an average litter size of 10.3 pigs per sow.

The report showed the same number of farrowings are planned for the final quarter of 2011, with a decrease to 480,000 for the December 2011-February 2012 period.

The U.S. pig total for June-August 2011, at 29.1 million head, was up 1 percent from 2010, the USDA said. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.9 million head, representing 50 percent of the breeding herd, down 1 percent from 2010.

The USDA stated average pigs saved per litter reached a record high 10.03 for the June-August 2011 period, compared to 9.81 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.5 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs, to 10.1 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.

This rise in pigs per litter was the second straight report in which the U.S. pork industry topped 10 pigs per litter, with the June 1 report marking the first time that ever happened. While the record litter is at manageable levels, Robb said “we do have to recognize that this productivity growth sort of compounds as we go through time.

“For example, fourth quarter 2012 forecasts have the slaughter in the quarter about 31 million head. Back in 2007, we had 30.4 (million). In 2008, we had 30.2.”

The U.S. breeding inventory, at 5.81 million head, was up 1 percent from last year and up slightly from the previous quarter, which was 36,000 head larger than last year and 3,000 head larger than on June 1.

“That growth is just about what I expected,” Meyer said, “but the 0.6 percent increase is somewhat larger than the average of analysts’ pre-report estimates, so it will put some pressure on deferred contract months.”

The USDA said market hog inventory, at 60.8 million head, was up 1 percent from last year and up 3 percent from last quarter. Although higher feed costs could have played a role in U.S. producers trimming the number of pigs sent to market, Kalo said the numbers were still higher than previously forecast.

“The fact (is) I think that these numbers did not show that,” he said. “It actually showed overall inventories were a little bit higher than what the expectations were, may be viewed as moderately bearish for markets when they open tomorrow (Sept. 29).”

Jim Long, president and CEO of Genesus Genetics in Detroit, Mich., said the lean hog price is $7 per cwt. higher than a year ago with the USDA, leaving “fantastic demand from pork exports” continuing “to support hog prices throughout the fall.”

“U.S. pork cut outs at $97.84, an unprecedented high price with hog numbers at 2.3 million per week,” he said.

The report also said U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.87 million sows farrow during the September-November 2011 quarter, down slightly from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2010. Intended farrowings for December-February 2012, at 2.86 million sows, are up slightly from 2011, but down 1 percent from 2010.