Retail red meat prices were at record levels this fall. Grocery store pork prices were record high in September ($3.561 per pound). Retail beef was record high in October ($4.933 per pound). These high prices were driven by tight supplies more than strong demand. The U.S. pork supply in 2011 is only 45.9 pounds per American, down 1.8 pounds from last year and the lowest since 1976. Per capita red meat and poultry supply is down 3.2 pounds from 2010 and the lowest since 1991.

The unemployment rate dipped to 8.6 percent in November. The employment report was mixed news as employers added 120,000 jobs during November, but 315,000 people gave up looking for work. If the economy is able to sustain growth and pull the unemployment level down, meat demand will almost certainly improve, pushing livestock prices still higher. This week hog prices rose for the second consecutive week. The national average negotiated carcass price for direct delivered hogs on the morning report today was $82.44 per cwt., up 89 cents from last Friday. The Friday morning average price for both the Western Corn Belt and Iowa-Minnesota was $83.94 per cwt. The Eastern Corn Belt averaged $81.55 per cwt. Friday’s top live hog price at Peoria, Ill. was $59 per cwt. Zumbrota, Minn.’s top was also $59 per cwt. The top for interior Missouri live hogs was $60 per cwt., up $1.50 from the previous Friday.

USDA’s Thursday afternoon calculated pork cutout value was $89.30 per cwt., down 9 cents from the previous Thursday. Loins, hams and butts were lower. Bellies held steady.

These are remarkably high prices for the start of December. A year ago the Peoria hog price was $46.50 per cwt., the national carcass average price was $65.19 per cwt., and the pork cutout was $77.89 per cwt. 

Hog slaughter totaled 2.361 million head this week, up 14.2 percent from the week before, which was light because of Thanksgiving, and up 1.5 percent compared to the same week last year. Barrow and gilt carcass weights for the week ending Nov. 19 averaged 205 pounds, down one pound from the week before and the same as a year ago. Iowa-Minnesota live weights for barrows and gilts last week averaged 276 pounds, up one pound from the week before and up one pound compared to last year.

Today’s close for the December lean hog futures contract, $86.05 per cwt., was down $2.05 from last Friday. The February lean hog futures contract settled at $89.22 per cwt., down $2.58 from the previous Friday. April lost $2.23 this week to settle at $92.02 per cwt. June hogs ended the week at $99.32 per cwt.

China is expected to import a record amount of pork this year. Through September, U.S. pork exports to China are up 376 percent compared to the same period last year and are less than 4 percent below the record pace of 2008.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Ron Plain may write to him in care of this publication.